Football · Spain Tercera Group 13 · 06/09, 18:30

Prediction: Deportivo Maritimo vs SFC Minerva

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.23Total

Deportivo Maritimo1.45

SFC Minerva0.78

1X2

52% 28% 19%

Deportivo Maritimo Draw SFC Minerva

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Maritimo 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDWLDDLLWW

SFC Minerva 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWDDLWLWLW

Head-to-head

Deportivo Maritimo 2–2 SFC Minerva (4 last)

Deportivo Maritimo4-0SFC Minerva
SFC Minerva2-1Deportivo Maritimo
SFC Minerva1-0Deportivo Maritimo
Deportivo Maritimo3-1SFC Minerva

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Maritimo 1487 · SFC Minerva 1487

	Deportivo Maritimo	Draw	SFC Minerva
Our model	52%	29%	19%
Market	53%	28%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.23 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Maritimo	SFC Minerva
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.7	1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.3	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	13/63/25%	13/63/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.4	1.3 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.5	4.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.25

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 20:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 1.70▼	Pinn 1.86 ★
X	3.10 → 3.25▲	Bet365 3.25
2	3.40 → 4.50▲	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
15:30 +7’	2.00	3.10	3.40
20:09 +14’	1.70▼	3.25▲	4.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:50 +93’	1.86	3.06	4.12

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Maritimo 2–0–2 SFC Minerva

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Spain Tercera Group 13	Deportivo Maritimo	4-0	SFC Minerva
04/01/26 Spain Tercera Group 13	SFC Minerva	2-1 HT 1-1	Deportivo Maritimo
09/03/25 Spain Tercera Group 13	SFC Minerva	1-0	Deportivo Maritimo
27/10/24 Spain Tercera Group 13	Deportivo Maritimo	3-1 HT 1-0	SFC Minerva

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 13

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	At. Pulpileno	1	1	0	2	0	3
2	Santomera	1	1	0	2	1	3
3	Aguilas B	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Alcantarilla FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Atletico Santa Cruz	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Bullas Deportivo	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Bala Azul	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Deportivo Maritimo	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	El Palmar CF Estrella Grana	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	FC Cartagena B	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Mazarron	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Olimpico Totana	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	AD Mar Menor San Javier	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	SFC Minerva	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	UD Los Garres	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Union Molinense CF	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	UCAM Murcia CF B	1	0	1	1	2	0
18	CD Algar	1	0	1	0	2	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Maritimo	SFC Minerva
At. Pulpileno	0-1 L	3-1 W
El Palmar CF Estrella Grana	0-1 L	3-2 W
Union Molinense CF	1-1 D	2-0 W
Atletico Santa Cruz	0-0 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: SFC Minerva (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo Maritimo

DDWLDDLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/05	Yeclano B Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	3-1	4	2	W
03/05	SFC Minerva Spain Tercera Group 13	–	4-0	–	–	W
26/04	At. Pulpileno Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-1	6	9	L
19/04	Aguilas B Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	1-2	4	2	L
11/04	UCAM Murcia CF B Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	1-1	6	6	D
05/04	Mazarron Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
29/03	El Palmar CF Estrella Grana Spain Tercera Group 13	0-1	0-1	8	8	L
22/03	Muleno Spain Tercera Group 13	–	1-0	–	–	W
15/03	Union Molinense CF Spain Tercera Group 13	0-1	1-1	4	6	D
07/03	Atletico Santa Cruz Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-0	0	3	D

SFC Minerva

LWDDLWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/05	El Palmar CF Estrella Grana Spain Tercera Group 13	1-1	3-2	4	1	W
03/05	Deportivo Maritimo Spain Tercera Group 13	–	0-4	–	–	L
26/04	Union Molinense CF Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
18/04	Atletico Santa Cruz Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
12/04	Santomera Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
04/04	UD Caravaca Spain Tercera Group 13	–	0-3	–	–	L
29/03	Cieza Spain Tercera Group 13	1-1	1-1	0	7	D
22/03	Bala Azul Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-0	0	2	D
19/03	At. Pulpileno Spain Tercera Group 13	0-1	3-1	5	5	W
15/03	Olimpico Totana Spain Tercera Group 13	0-1	0-2	7	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Maritimo vs SFC Minerva?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Maritimo win (52%). Probabilities: Deportivo Maritimo 52%, draw 28%, SFC Minerva 19%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Maritimo vs SFC Minerva?

The model expects 2.23 goals (Deportivo Maritimo 1.45 · SFC Minerva 0.78), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Maritimo vs SFC Minerva?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.