Football · Spain Tercera Group 13 · 06/09, 10:30

Prediction: FC Cartagena B vs Union Molinense CF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.11Total

FC Cartagena B0.97

Union Molinense CF1.14

1X2

30% 30% 39%

FC Cartagena B Draw Union Molinense CF

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Cartagena B 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Union Molinense CF 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Cartagena B 1–3 Union Molinense CF (4 last)

Union Molinense CF0-1FC Cartagena B
FC Cartagena B1-2Union Molinense CF
FC Cartagena B0-2Union Molinense CF
Union Molinense CF1-0FC Cartagena B

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Cartagena B 1454 · Union Molinense CF 1490

	FC Cartagena B	Draw	Union Molinense CF
Our model	29%	32%	38%
Market	31%	29%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.11 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Union Molinense CF: 3-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Cartagena B	Union Molinense CF
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.1	1.3 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/63/13%	44/33/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.4	2.2 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.4	5.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.10

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.13
2	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.42 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
18:52 +7’	2.88	3.10	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:08 +110’	2.68	3.13	2.42

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Cartagena B 1–0–3 Union Molinense CF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/01/26 Spain Tercera Group 13	Union Molinense CF	0-1 HT 0-1	FC Cartagena B
06/09/25 Spain Tercera Group 13	FC Cartagena B	1-2 HT 0-2	Union Molinense CF
03/05/25 Spain Tercera Group 13	FC Cartagena B	0-2 HT 0-0	Union Molinense CF
22/12/24 Spain Tercera Group 13	Union Molinense CF	1-0 HT 1-0	FC Cartagena B

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 13

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	At. Pulpileno	1	1	0	2	0	3
2	Santomera	1	1	0	2	1	3
3	Aguilas B	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Alcantarilla FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Atletico Santa Cruz	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Bullas Deportivo	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Bala Azul	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Deportivo Maritimo	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	El Palmar CF Estrella Grana	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	FC Cartagena B	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Mazarron	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Olimpico Totana	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	AD Mar Menor San Javier	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	SFC Minerva	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	UD Los Garres	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Union Molinense CF	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	UCAM Murcia CF B	1	0	1	1	2	0
18	CD Algar	1	0	1	0	2	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Cartagena B	Union Molinense CF
Olimpico Totana	2-0 W	0-0 D
Real Murcia B	1-1 D	2-0 W
Yeclano B	0-2 L	2-0 W
SFC Minerva	3-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Cartagena B

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/05	Atletico Santa Cruz Spain Tercera Group 13	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
02/05	Santomera Spain Tercera Group 13	1-1	1-2	2	10	L
25/04	UD Caravaca Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
18/04	Cieza Spain Tercera Group 13	–	1-1	–	–	D
12/04	Bala Azul Spain Tercera Group 13	–	2-3	–	–	L
01/04	Olimpico Totana Spain Tercera Group 13	2-0	2-0	1	7	W
29/03	Muleno Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
22/03	Real Murcia B Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	1-1	3	8	D
14/03	Yeclano B Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-2	3	6	L
07/03	SFC Minerva Spain Tercera Group 13	2-0	3-0	6	5	W

Union Molinense CF

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/05	Olimpico Totana Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-0	0	4	D
10/05	Real Murcia B Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
03/05	Yeclano B Spain Tercera Group 13	2-0	2-0	6	4	W
26/04	SFC Minerva Spain Tercera Group 13	0-1	0-2	6	6	L
19/04	At. Pulpileno Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	1-1	8	6	D
11/04	Aguilas B Spain Tercera Group 13	–	1-2	–	–	L
02/04	UCAM Murcia CF B Spain Tercera Group 13	1-2	3-3	2	7	D
29/03	Mazarron Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-1	5	11	L
22/03	El Palmar CF Estrella Grana Spain Tercera Group 13	2-0	3-0	6	4	W
15/03	Deportivo Maritimo Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	1-1	9	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Cartagena B vs Union Molinense CF?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Union Molinense CF win (39%). Probabilities: FC Cartagena B 30%, draw 30%, Union Molinense CF 39%.

How many goals are expected in FC Cartagena B vs Union Molinense CF?

The model expects 2.11 goals (FC Cartagena B 0.97 · Union Molinense CF 1.14), with a 51% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Cartagena B vs Union Molinense CF?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.