Football · Spain Tercera Group 13 · 06/09, 18:30

Prediction: Olimpico Totana vs Bala Azul

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.46Total

Olimpico Totana1.51

Bala Azul0.95

1X2

49% 29% 22%

Olimpico Totana Draw Bala Azul

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Olimpico Totana 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WDWLDDDWWD

Bala Azul 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDDWWWDLLL

Head-to-head

Olimpico Totana 1–1–0 Bala Azul (2 last)

Bala Azul0-0Olimpico Totana
Olimpico Totana2-0Bala Azul

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Olimpico Totana 1541 · Bala Azul 1482

	Olimpico Totana	Draw	Bala Azul
Our model	49%	28%	22%
Market	49%	29%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Olimpico Totana (rating 1541 vs 1482).
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 12 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Olimpico Totana	Bala Azul
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.9	1.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.9	0.2 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/50/25%	17/67/17%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.1	2.3 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.3	6.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.10

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.85

Under 21.95

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 20:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.85▲	Pinn 1.90 ★
X	3.25 → 3.10▼	Bet365 3.10
2	3.80 → 4.10▲	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.7% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:30 +7’	1.83	3.25	3.80
20:01 +23’	1.85▲	3.10▼	4.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:42 +101’	1.90	3.03	4.01

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Olimpico Totana 1–1–0 Bala Azul

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Spain Tercera Group 13	Bala Azul	0-0 HT 0-0	Olimpico Totana
13/12/25 Spain Tercera Group 13	Olimpico Totana	2-0 HT 1-0	Bala Azul

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 13

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	At. Pulpileno	1	1	0	2	0	3
2	Santomera	1	1	0	2	1	3
3	Aguilas B	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Alcantarilla FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Atletico Santa Cruz	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Bullas Deportivo	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Bala Azul	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Deportivo Maritimo	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	El Palmar CF Estrella Grana	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	FC Cartagena B	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Mazarron	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Olimpico Totana	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	AD Mar Menor San Javier	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	SFC Minerva	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	UD Los Garres	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Union Molinense CF	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	UCAM Murcia CF B	1	0	1	1	2	0
18	CD Algar	1	0	1	0	2	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Olimpico Totana	Bala Azul
UD Caravaca	1-0 W	2-4 L
Cieza	2-2 D	1-3 L
Muleno	1-1 D	3-4 L
FC Cartagena B	0-2 L	3-2 W
Real Murcia B	4-2 W	2-0 W
Yeclano B	1-1 D	3-0 W
SFC Minerva	2-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Olimpico Totana (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Olimpico Totana

WDWLDDDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/05	Union Molinense CF Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
10/05	Santomera Spain Tercera Group 13	2-1	3-1	8	4	W
03/05	UD Caravaca Spain Tercera Group 13	–	1-0	–	–	W
26/04	Cieza Spain Tercera Group 13	1-2	2-2	5	3	D
19/04	Bala Azul Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-0	4	11	D
12/04	Muleno Spain Tercera Group 13	–	1-1	–	–	D
01/04	FC Cartagena B Spain Tercera Group 13	0-2	0-2	11	7	L
28/03	Real Murcia B Spain Tercera Group 13	1-1	4-2	4	7	W
22/03	Yeclano B Spain Tercera Group 13	1-1	1-1	6	3	D
15/03	SFC Minerva Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	2-0	4	4	W

Bala Azul

DDDWWWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/05	UD Caravaca Spain Tercera Group 13	–	2-4	–	–	L
02/05	Cieza Spain Tercera Group 13	0-1	1-3	5	6	L
26/04	Muleno Spain Tercera Group 13	–	3-4	–	–	L
19/04	Olimpico Totana Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-0	3	11	D
12/04	FC Cartagena B Spain Tercera Group 13	–	3-2	–	–	W
05/04	Real Murcia B Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	2-0	5	8	W
28/03	Yeclano B Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	3-0	5	5	W
22/03	SFC Minerva Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
15/03	At. Pulpileno Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	1-1	2	10	D
08/03	Aguilas B Spain Tercera Group 13	–	0-0	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Olimpico Totana vs Bala Azul?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Olimpico Totana win (49%). Probabilities: Olimpico Totana 49%, draw 29%, Bala Azul 22%.

How many goals are expected in Olimpico Totana vs Bala Azul?

The model expects 2.46 goals (Olimpico Totana 1.51 · Bala Azul 0.95), with a 56% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Olimpico Totana vs Bala Azul?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.