Football · Spain Tercera Group 13 · 05/09, 18:30

Prediction: Santomera vs UCAM Murcia CF B

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.09Total

Santomera1.5

UCAM Murcia CF B1.59

1X2

34% 27% 38%

Santomera Draw UCAM Murcia CF B

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Santomera 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLWWWL

UCAM Murcia CF B 4-6-0 (W-D-L)

DWWWDDWDDD

Head-to-head

Santomera 1–1–2 UCAM Murcia CF B (4 last)

Santomera2-4UCAM Murcia CF B
UCAM Murcia CF B2-2Santomera
Santomera3-1UCAM Murcia CF B
UCAM Murcia CF B5-0Santomera

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Santomera 1457 · UCAM Murcia CF B 1558

	Santomera	Draw	UCAM Murcia CF B
Our model	35%	26%	39%
Market	34%	28%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3.09 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours UCAM Murcia CF B (rating 1457 vs 1558).
H2H favours UCAM Murcia CF B: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Santomera	UCAM Murcia CF B
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.2	2.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.2	1.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/67/33%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.1	1.4 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.2	4.5 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.20

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 1.3 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 09:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.35▼	Bet365 2.35
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.35 → 2.63▲	Pinn 2.89 ★

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:32 +14’	2.63	3.20	2.35
20:21 +8’	2.55▼	3.20	2.40▲
22:46 +6’	2.88▲	3.25▲	2.20▼
09:31 +20’	2.35▼	3.20▼	2.63▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:22 +8’	3.24	3.11	2.10
22:51	3.23▼	2.97▼	2.18▲
23:41 +1’	3.21▼	3.02▲	2.16▼
09:49 +1’	2.29▼	3.11▲	2.89▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Santomera 1–1–2 UCAM Murcia CF B

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Spain Tercera Group 13	Santomera	2-4 HT 2-2	UCAM Murcia CF B
09/11/25 Spain Tercera Group 13	UCAM Murcia CF B	2-2 HT 0-2	Santomera
09/02/25 Spain Tercera Group 13	Santomera	3-1	UCAM Murcia CF B
29/09/24 Spain Tercera Group 13	UCAM Murcia CF B	5-0 HT 3-0	Santomera

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 13

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Aguilas B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Alcantarilla FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Atletico Santa Cruz	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bullas Deportivo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	At. Pulpileno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CD Algar	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bala Azul	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Santomera	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Deportivo Maritimo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	El Palmar CF Estrella Grana	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Cartagena B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Mazarron	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Olimpico Totana	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	AD Mar Menor San Javier	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SFC Minerva	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	UCAM Murcia CF B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	UD Los Garres	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Union Molinense CF	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Santomera	UCAM Murcia CF B
Aguilas B	0-2 L	2-2 D
Mazarron	0-5 L	3-3 D
El Palmar CF Estrella Grana	0-1 L	4-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: UCAM Murcia CF B (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Santomera

LLLLLLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/05	Olimpico Totana Spain Tercera Group 13	1-2	1-3	0	4	L
02/05	FC Cartagena B Spain Tercera Group 13	1-1	2-1	9	10	W
25/04	Real Murcia B Spain Tercera Group 13	1-1	3-2	3	3	W
19/04	Yeclano B Spain Tercera Group 13	1-1	3-1	2	8	W
12/04	SFC Minerva Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
04/04	At. Pulpileno Spain Tercera Group 13	0-1	0-2	3	1	L
28/03	Aguilas B Spain Tercera Group 13	–	0-2	–	–	L
22/03	UCAM Murcia CF B Spain Tercera Group 13	2-2	2-4	6	8	L
15/03	Mazarron Spain Tercera Group 13	0-3	0-5	1	2	L
08/03	El Palmar CF Estrella Grana Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-1	8	8	L

UCAM Murcia CF B

DWWWDDWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/05	Aguilas B Spain Tercera Group 13	2-1	2-2	5	5	D
03/05	Muleno Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
26/04	Mazarron Spain Tercera Group 13	1-1	3-3	2	4	D
19/04	El Palmar CF Estrella Grana Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	4-0	7	2	W
11/04	Deportivo Maritimo Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	1-1	2	6	D
02/04	Union Molinense CF Spain Tercera Group 13	2-1	3-3	7	7	D
29/03	Atletico Santa Cruz Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	4-0	2	6	W
22/03	Santomera Spain Tercera Group 13	2-2	4-2	5	8	W
15/03	UD Caravaca Spain Tercera Group 13	–	2-0	–	–	W
08/03	Cieza Spain Tercera Group 13	–	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Santomera vs UCAM Murcia CF B?

According to our model, the most likely result is an UCAM Murcia CF B win (38%). Probabilities: Santomera 34%, draw 27%, UCAM Murcia CF B 38%.

How many goals are expected in Santomera vs UCAM Murcia CF B?

The model expects 3.09 goals (Santomera 1.5 · UCAM Murcia CF B 1.59), with a 60% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Santomera vs UCAM Murcia CF B?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.