Football · Spain Tercera Group 8 · 13/09, 12:00
Prediction: Villaralbo vs UD Santa Marta
Team pages: Villaralbo · UD Santa Marta
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.38Total
Villaralbo1.08
UD Santa Marta1.3
1X2
Villaralbo
Draw
UD Santa Marta
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Villaralbo
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
UD Santa Marta
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Villaralbo
1–5
UD Santa Marta
(6 last)
- Villaralbo0-1UD Santa Marta
- UD Santa Marta3-0Villaralbo
- UD Santa Marta1-0Villaralbo
- Villaralbo0-1UD Santa Marta
- UD Santa Marta3-2Villaralbo
- Villaralbo2-1UD Santa Marta
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Villaralbo 1482 · UD Santa Marta 1538
| Villaralbo | Draw | UD Santa Marta | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 30% | 40% |
| Market | 30% | 29% | 41% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.38 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours UD Santa Marta (rating 1482 vs 1538).
- H2H favours UD Santa Marta: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Villaralbo | UD Santa Marta | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.4 | 1.7 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1 | 1 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/0/60% | 60/0/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4 | 0.7 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0 | 4.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Villaralbo 1–0–5 UD Santa Marta
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/02/26 Spain Tercera Group 8 | Villaralbo | 0-1 | UD Santa Marta |
| 11/10/25 Spain Tercera Group 8 | UD Santa Marta | 3-0 | Villaralbo |
| 05/04/25 Spain Tercera Group 8 | UD Santa Marta | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Villaralbo |
| 17/11/24 Spain Tercera Group 8 | Villaralbo | 0-1 | UD Santa Marta |
| 18/08/24 Spain Copa Federacion | UD Santa Marta | 3-2 HT 3-2 | Villaralbo |
| 05/05/24 Spain Tercera Group 8 | Villaralbo | 2-1 | UD Santa Marta |
Standings · Spain Tercera Group 8
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CD Virgen Del Camino | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | Burgos Promesas | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | CD Atletico Mansilles | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Almazan | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | At. Bembibre | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Cultural Leonesa B | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | CDA Palencia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Guijuelo | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | UD Santa Marta | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | CD Calasanz | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 11 | Salamanca B | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 11 | Unionistas de Salamanca CF B | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 13 | Arandina | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 14 | Cristo Atletico | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 15 | Villaralbo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 | Mirandes B | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Turegano CF | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| 18 | CD Colegios Diocesanos | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Villaralbo | UD Santa Marta |
|---|---|---|
| Mirandes B | 2-4 L | 3-2 W |
| Guijuelo | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| CD Virgen Del Camino | 0-1 L | 4-0 W |
| Almazan | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| CDA Palencia | 3-2 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 3 L | 3 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: UD Santa Marta (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Villaralbo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Burgos Promesas Spain Tercera Group 8 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | Mirandes B Spain Tercera Group 8 |
0-3 | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | CD Colegios Diocesanos Spain Tercera Group 8 |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 26/04 | Unionistas de Salamanca CF B Spain Tercera Group 8 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 18/04 | Guijuelo Spain Tercera Group 8 |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 11/04 | Cultural Leonesa B Spain Tercera Group 8 |
2-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 04/04 | CD Mojados Spain Tercera Group 8 |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 01/04 | CD Virgen Del Camino Spain Tercera Group 8 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 28/03 | Almazan Spain Tercera Group 8 |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 21/03 | CDA Palencia Spain Tercera Group 8 |
– | 3-2 | – | – | W |
UD Santa Marta
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Arandina Spain Tercera Group 8 |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | Guijuelo Spain Tercera Group 8 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 10/05 | Almazan Spain Tercera Group 8 |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 02/05 | CDA Palencia Spain Tercera Group 8 |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 26/04 | Becerril Spain Tercera Group 8 |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 18/04 | Arandina Spain Tercera Group 8 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 11/04 | At. Bembibre Spain Tercera Group 8 |
0-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 4 | D |
| 03/04 | Mirandes B Spain Tercera Group 8 |
2-0 | 3-2 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 28/03 | CD Virgen Del Camino Spain Tercera Group 8 |
– | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 21/03 | CD Atletico Mansilles Spain Tercera Group 8 |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Villaralbo vs UD Santa Marta?
According to our model, the most likely result is an UD Santa Marta win (41%). Probabilities: Villaralbo 30%, draw 30%, UD Santa Marta 41%.
How many goals are expected in Villaralbo vs UD Santa Marta?
The model expects 2.38 goals (Villaralbo 1.08 · UD Santa Marta 1.3), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Villaralbo vs UD Santa Marta?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.