Football · Spain Tercera Group 8 · 20/09, 12:30

Prediction: At. Bembibre vs CD Atletico Mansilles

Team pages: At. Bembibre

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.45Total

At. Bembibre1.24

CD Atletico Mansilles1.21

1X2

36% 30% 34%

At. Bembibre Draw CD Atletico Mansilles

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

At. Bembibre 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

LDLDDDWLWD

CD Atletico Mansilles 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DDWWWWLDWD

Head-to-head

At. Bembibre 0–2–2 CD Atletico Mansilles (4 last)

At. Bembibre1-1CD Atletico Mansilles
CD Atletico Mansilles1-0At. Bembibre
At. Bembibre0-0CD Atletico Mansilles
CD Atletico Mansilles3-1At. Bembibre

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · At. Bembibre 1488 · CD Atletico Mansilles 1551

	At. Bembibre	Draw	CD Atletico Mansilles
Our model	36%	30%	34%
Market	36%	30%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.45 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Atletico Mansilles (rating 1488 vs 1551).
H2H favours CD Atletico Mansilles: 2-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	At. Bembibre	CD Atletico Mansilles
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 2.1	1.2 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/33/17%	25/75/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.2	2 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.3	4 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.00

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:19 +63’	2.50	3.00	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · At. Bembibre 0–2–2 CD Atletico Mansilles

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 Spain Tercera Group 8	At. Bembibre	1-1	CD Atletico Mansilles
15/11/25 Spain Tercera Group 8	CD Atletico Mansilles	1-0	At. Bembibre
09/03/25 Spain Tercera Group 8	At. Bembibre	0-0 HT 0-0	CD Atletico Mansilles
23/10/24 Spain Tercera Group 8	CD Atletico Mansilles	3-1	At. Bembibre

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 8

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Virgen Del Camino	2	2	0	0	6	2	6
2	Burgos Promesas	2	2	0	0	4	0	6
3	Cultural Leonesa B	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
4	UD Santa Marta	2	2	0	0	3	1	6
5	At. Bembibre	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
6	CD Atletico Mansilles	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
6	Almazan	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
8	Guijuelo	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
9	CDA Palencia	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
10	CD Calasanz	2	1	0	1	2	4	3
11	Salamanca B	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
11	Unionistas de Salamanca CF B	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
13	Arandina	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
14	Mirandes B	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
14	Cristo Atletico	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
16	Villaralbo	2	0	0	2	1	3	0
17	Turegano CF	2	0	0	2	2	5	0
18	CD Colegios Diocesanos	2	0	0	2	0	5	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	At. Bembibre	CD Atletico Mansilles
Cristo Atletico	2-0 W	1-1 D
CDA Palencia	1-4 L	2-1 W
Becerril	4-1 W	2-0 W
Arandina	3-3 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: At. Bembibre (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

At. Bembibre

LDLDDDWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Mirandes B Spain Tercera Group 8	0-0	1-1	6	5	D
05/09	Cristo Atletico Spain Tercera Group 8	1-0	2-0	3	7	W
10/05	CDA Palencia Spain Tercera Group 8	1-1	1-4	3	0	L
02/05	Becerril Spain Tercera Group 8	3-1	4-1	4	3	W
26/04	Arandina Spain Tercera Group 8	–	3-3	–	–	D
18/04	Mirandes B Spain Tercera Group 8	–	2-2	–	–	D
11/04	UD Santa Marta Spain Tercera Group 8	1-0	2-2	7	4	D
05/04	CD Virgen Del Camino Spain Tercera Group 8	1-3	1-3	2	0	L
28/03	CD Atletico Mansilles Spain Tercera Group 8	–	1-1	–	–	D
21/03	Atletico Tordesillas Spain Tercera Group 8	–	1-4	–	–	L

CD Atletico Mansilles

DDWWWWLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Cristo Atletico Spain Tercera Group 8	–	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	Turegano CF Spain Tercera Group 8	–	2-1	–	–	W
10/05	Cultural Leonesa B Spain Tercera Group 8	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
02/05	CD Mojados Spain Tercera Group 8	–	0-1	–	–	L
26/04	Almazan Spain Tercera Group 8	–	1-0	–	–	W
23/04	Almazan Spain Tercera Group 8	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
18/04	CDA Palencia Spain Tercera Group 8	–	2-1	–	–	W
12/04	Becerril Spain Tercera Group 8	0-0	2-0	6	4	W
04/04	Arandina Spain Tercera Group 8	1-1	1-1	5	7	D
28/03	At. Bembibre Spain Tercera Group 8	–	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in At. Bembibre vs CD Atletico Mansilles?

According to our model, the most likely result is a At. Bembibre win (36%). Probabilities: At. Bembibre 36%, draw 30%, CD Atletico Mansilles 34%.

How many goals are expected in At. Bembibre vs CD Atletico Mansilles?

The model expects 2.45 goals (At. Bembibre 1.24 · CD Atletico Mansilles 1.21), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in At. Bembibre vs CD Atletico Mansilles?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.