Football · Spain Tercera Group 9 · 27/09, 19:00
Prediction: FC Marbelli vs UD Torre del Mar
Team pages: FC Marbelli · UD Torre del Mar
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.05Total
FC Marbelli1.16
UD Torre del Mar0.89
1X2
FC Marbelli
Draw
UD Torre del Mar
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 66%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
FC Marbelli
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
UD Torre del Mar
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FC Marbelli
1–1–2
UD Torre del Mar
(4 last)
- UD Torre del Mar0-0FC Marbelli
- FC Marbelli1-2UD Torre del Mar
- UD Torre del Mar1-2FC Marbelli
- FC Marbelli0-1UD Torre del Mar
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Marbelli 1530 · UD Torre del Mar 1490
| FC Marbelli | Draw | UD Torre del Mar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 33% | 27% |
| Market | 42% | 30% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.05 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 73%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Marbelli (rating 1530 vs 1490).
- H2H favours UD Torre del Mar: 2-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Marbelli | UD Torre del Mar | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.2 | 0.3 / 0 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 25/75/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 4.4 | 3 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.2 | 5.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Marbelli 1–1–2 UD Torre del Mar
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/04/26 Spain Tercera Group 9 | UD Torre del Mar | 0-0 HT 0-0 | FC Marbelli |
| 28/09/25 Spain Tercera Group 9 | FC Marbelli | 1-2 | UD Torre del Mar |
| 26/01/25 Spain Tercera Group 9 | UD Torre del Mar | 1-2 HT 0-1 | FC Marbelli |
| 15/09/24 Spain Tercera Group 9 | FC Marbelli | 0-1 | UD Torre del Mar |
Standings · Spain Tercera Group 9
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melilla | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | FC Marbelli | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Arenas | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | UD San Pedro | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | Atletico Porcuna CF | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 6 |
| 6 | Almeria B | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | Motril | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 8 | Recreativo Granada | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | Alhaurino | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 10 | Atletico Malagueno | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 |
| 11 | UD Torre del Mar | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 12 | CD Atletico de Marbella Paraiso | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 13 | Churriana de la Vega CF | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
| 14 | Cantoria 2017 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 15 | Ciudad Torredonjimeno | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| 16 | Atletico Mancha Real | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 17 | CD Huetor Vega | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| 18 | CD Malaga Juniors FC | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Marbelli
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | CD Huetor Vega Spain Tercera Group 9 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 13/09 | Ciudad Torredonjimeno Spain Tercera Group 9 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 6 | W |
| 05/09 | Atletico Mancha Real Spain Tercera Group 9 |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 10/05 | Ciudad Torredonjimeno Spain Tercera Group 9 |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 03/05 | Recreativo Granada Spain Tercera Group 9 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 26/04 | CD Huetor Vega Spain Tercera Group 9 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 19/04 | CD Huetor Tajar Spain Tercera Group 9 |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 11/04 | UD Melilla B Spain Tercera Group 9 |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 05/04 | Martos CD Spain Tercera Group 9 |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 01/04 | UD Torre del Mar Spain Tercera Group 9 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
UD Torre del Mar
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Melilla Spain Tercera Group 9 |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 13/09 | Motril Spain Tercera Group 9 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 06/09 | Churriana de la Vega CF Spain Tercera Group 9 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 10/05 | CD Torreperogil Spain Tercera Group 9 |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 03/05 | Atletico Porcuna CF Spain Tercera Group 9 |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 26/04 | Motril Spain Tercera Group 9 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 19/04 | CD El Palo Spain Tercera Group 9 |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 12/04 | UD San Pedro Spain Tercera Group 9 |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 05/04 | Alhaurino Spain Tercera Group 9 |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 01/04 | FC Marbelli Spain Tercera Group 9 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Marbelli vs UD Torre del Mar?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Marbelli win (41%). Probabilities: FC Marbelli 41%, draw 31%, UD Torre del Mar 28%.
How many goals are expected in FC Marbelli vs UD Torre del Mar?
The model expects 2.05 goals (FC Marbelli 1.16 · UD Torre del Mar 0.89), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Marbelli vs UD Torre del Mar?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.