Football · Spain Tercera Group 9 · 27/09, 19:00
Prediction: Motril vs Alhaurino
Team pages: Motril · Alhaurino
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.09Total
Motril1.55
Alhaurino0.54
1X2
Motril
Draw
Alhaurino
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 59%
Not both to score 55%
Most likely score
1-0 18%
Recent form · 10 last
Motril
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
Alhaurino
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Motril
2–1–3
Alhaurino
(6 last)
- Alhaurino0-1Motril
- Motril2-0Alhaurino
- Alhaurino1-0Motril
- Motril1-1Alhaurino
- Motril1-2Alhaurino
- Alhaurino2-1Motril
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Motril 1522 · Alhaurino 1504
| Motril | Draw | Alhaurino | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 27% | 12% |
| Market | 64% | 23% | 14% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.09 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Alhaurino: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Motril | Alhaurino | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 0.8 | 1.3 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.5 | 0.6 / 0 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 38/38/25% | 60/40/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5.7 | 2.3 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.1 / 0 | 4.2 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Motril 2–1–3 Alhaurino
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/26 Spain Tercera Group 9 | Alhaurino | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Motril |
| 02/11/25 Spain Tercera Group 9 | Motril | 2-0 | Alhaurino |
| 20/02/22 Spain Tercera Group 9 | Alhaurino | 1-0 | Motril |
| 24/10/21 Spain Tercera Group 9 | Motril | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Alhaurino |
| 21/03/21 Spain Tercera Group 9 | Motril | 1-2 | Alhaurino |
| 13/12/20 Spain Tercera Group 9 | Alhaurino | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Motril |
Standings · Spain Tercera Group 9
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melilla | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | FC Marbelli | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Arenas | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | UD San Pedro | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | Atletico Porcuna CF | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 6 |
| 6 | Almeria B | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | Motril | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 8 | Recreativo Granada | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | Alhaurino | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 10 | Atletico Malagueno | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 |
| 11 | UD Torre del Mar | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 12 | CD Atletico de Marbella Paraiso | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 13 | Churriana de la Vega CF | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
| 14 | Cantoria 2017 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 15 | Ciudad Torredonjimeno | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| 16 | Atletico Mancha Real | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 17 | CD Huetor Vega | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| 18 | CD Malaga Juniors FC | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Motril | Alhaurino |
|---|---|---|
| UD Torre del Mar | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Churriana de la Vega CF | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Atletico Porcuna CF | 2-1 W | 3-0 W |
| CD El Palo | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 0 L | 3 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Alhaurino (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Motril
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | CD Malaga Juniors FC Spain Tercera Group 9 |
– | 2-1 | 11 | 8 | W |
| 13/09 | UD Torre del Mar Spain Tercera Group 9 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 8 | D |
| 05/09 | CD Huetor Vega Spain Tercera Group 9 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 17/05 | Churriana de la Vega CF Spain Tercera Group 9 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 10/05 | Atletico Porcuna CF Spain Tercera Group 9 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 06/05 | UD Melilla B Spain Tercera Group 9 |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 26/04 | UD Torre del Mar Spain Tercera Group 9 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 19/04 | Martos CD Spain Tercera Group 9 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 12/04 | CD El Palo Spain Tercera Group 9 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 05/04 | CP Mijas Spain Tercera Group 9 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
Alhaurino
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Churriana de la Vega CF Spain Tercera Group 9 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 10 | W |
| 13/09 | Almeria B Spain Tercera Group 9 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 06/09 | Recreativo Granada Spain Tercera Group 9 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 10/05 | Atletico Mancha Real Spain Tercera Group 9 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 03/05 | Arenas Spain Tercera Group 9 |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 26/04 | Churriana de la Vega CF Spain Tercera Group 9 |
– | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 19/04 | CD Torreperogil Spain Tercera Group 9 |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 12/04 | Atletico Porcuna CF Spain Tercera Group 9 |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 05/04 | UD Torre del Mar Spain Tercera Group 9 |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 29/03 | CD El Palo Spain Tercera Group 9 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Motril vs Alhaurino?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Motril win (63%). Probabilities: Motril 63%, draw 25%, Alhaurino 13%.
How many goals are expected in Motril vs Alhaurino?
The model expects 2.09 goals (Motril 1.55 · Alhaurino 0.54), with a 59% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Motril vs Alhaurino?
The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.