Football · Peru Liga 1 · 15/08, 22:00

Prediction: FC Cajamarca vs Universitario de Deportes

Team pages: FC Cajamarca · Universitario de Deportes

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.3Total

FC Cajamarca0.81

Universitario de Deportes1.5

1X2

20% 27% 53%

FC Cajamarca Draw Universitario de Deportes

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

0-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC Cajamarca 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

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Universitario de Deportes 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Cajamarca 0–1 Universitario de Deportes (1 last)

Universitario de Deportes1-0FC Cajamarca

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Cajamarca 1492 · Universitario de Deportes 1515

	FC Cajamarca	Draw	Universitario de Deportes
Our model	19%	29%	52%
Market	20%	26%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 2.3 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Cajamarca	Universitario de Deportes
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.6	1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 3.2	2.4 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.3	2.7 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

14.50

X3.50

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.82

2 (-0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:33 +4’	4.50	3.50	1.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Cajamarca 0–0–1 Universitario de Deportes

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/03/26 Peru Liga 1	Universitario de Deportes	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Cajamarca

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	21	14	6	1	38	13	48
2	CD Los Chankas	21	12	5	4	31	27	41
3	Cienciano	21	11	3	7	37	28	36
4	Universitario de Deportes	21	10	6	5	29	20	36
5	FBC Melgar	20	10	5	5	34	22	35
6	Cusco FC	21	10	3	8	31	31	33
7	Deportivo Garcilaso	20	9	5	6	24	20	32
8	Alianza Atletico	21	7	6	8	26	26	27
9	Sport Boys	21	7	6	8	19	21	27
10	Sporting Cristal	21	7	5	9	33	33	26
11	Comerciantes Unidos	21	6	8	7	27	28	26
12	Sport Huancayo	21	6	5	10	27	34	23
13	AD Tarma	21	5	6	10	24	27	21
14	Deportivo Moquegua	20	5	6	9	19	26	21
15	Juan Pablo II College	21	5	6	10	26	44	21
16	Atletico Grau	21	5	5	11	15	22	20
17	FC Cajamarca	20	4	6	10	26	34	18
18	UTC Cajamarca	21	4	8	9	24	34	15

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Cajamarca	Universitario de Deportes
Sport Huancayo	0-2 L	2-1 W
Sporting Cristal	3-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC Cajamarca

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	1-1	4-2	4	8	W
01/08	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	0-2	0-2	1	6	L
27/07	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-2	1-2	3	3	L
17/07	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	0-0	2-2	1	9	D
26/06	UTC Cajamarca Peru Copa de la Liga	0-1	1-3	8	6	L
20/06	Deportivo Llacuabamba Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	1-1	4	7	D
31/05	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-1	2	0	D
24/05	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	0	3	D
15/05	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	0-1	3-1	6	9	W
08/05	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-1	3	5	W

Universitario de Deportes

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
03/08	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-2	2	0	L
25/07	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
18/07	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	2-1	2-1	4	4	W
11/07	Millonarios America Friendlies	0-0	2-0	2	2	W
27/06	Atletico Grau Peru Copa de la Liga	1-0	1-1	8	11	D
13/06	Pirata FC Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	0-2	0	0	L
31/05	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-1	12	3	W
27/05	Deportes Tolima Copa Libertadores	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
23/05	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	3	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Cajamarca vs Universitario de Deportes?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Universitario de Deportes win (53%). Probabilities: FC Cajamarca 20%, draw 27%, Universitario de Deportes 53%.

How many goals are expected in FC Cajamarca vs Universitario de Deportes?

The model expects 2.3 goals (FC Cajamarca 0.81 · Universitario de Deportes 1.5), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Cajamarca vs Universitario de Deportes?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.