Football · Peru Liga 1 · 15/08, 22:00

Prediction: Cienciano vs Deportivo Garcilaso

Team pages: Cienciano · Deportivo Garcilaso

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.58Total

Cienciano1.52

Deportivo Garcilaso1.06

1X2

47% 28% 25%

Cienciano Draw Deportivo Garcilaso

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Cienciano 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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Deportivo Garcilaso 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Cienciano 2–4 Deportivo Garcilaso (6 last)

Cienciano2-1Deportivo Garcilaso
Deportivo Garcilaso2-3Cienciano
Deportivo Garcilaso2-1Cienciano
Cienciano2-3Deportivo Garcilaso
Deportivo Garcilaso1-0Cienciano
Cienciano0-2Deportivo Garcilaso

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cienciano 1499 · Deportivo Garcilaso 1538

	Cienciano	Draw	Deportivo Garcilaso
Our model	47%	28%	25%
Market	47%	28%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.58 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Deportivo Garcilaso: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cienciano	Deportivo Garcilaso
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.3	1.4 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 4.4	2.1 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.7	4.2 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.30

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:33 +4’	1.95	3.30	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cienciano 2–0–4 Deportivo Garcilaso

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/06/26 Peru Copa de la Liga	Cienciano	2-1 HT 1-1	Deportivo Garcilaso
28/02/26 Peru Liga 1	Deportivo Garcilaso	2-3 HT 0-1	Cienciano
02/08/25 Peru Liga 1	Deportivo Garcilaso	2-1 HT 1-1	Cienciano
23/02/25 Peru Liga 1	Cienciano	2-3 HT 1-2	Deportivo Garcilaso
22/09/24 Peru Liga 1	Deportivo Garcilaso	1-0 HT 1-0	Cienciano
20/04/24 Peru Liga 1	Cienciano	0-2 HT 0-0	Deportivo Garcilaso

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	21	14	6	1	38	13	48
2	CD Los Chankas	21	12	5	4	31	27	41
3	Cienciano	21	11	3	7	37	28	36
4	Universitario de Deportes	21	10	6	5	29	20	36
5	FBC Melgar	20	10	5	5	34	22	35
6	Cusco FC	21	10	3	8	31	31	33
7	Deportivo Garcilaso	20	9	5	6	24	20	32
8	Alianza Atletico	21	7	6	8	26	26	27
9	Sport Boys	21	7	6	8	19	21	27
10	Sporting Cristal	21	7	5	9	33	33	26
11	Comerciantes Unidos	21	6	8	7	27	28	26
12	Sport Huancayo	21	6	5	10	27	34	23
13	AD Tarma	21	5	6	10	24	27	21
14	Deportivo Moquegua	20	5	6	9	19	26	21
15	Juan Pablo II College	21	5	6	10	26	44	21
16	Atletico Grau	21	5	5	11	15	22	20
17	FC Cajamarca	20	4	6	10	26	34	18
18	UTC Cajamarca	21	4	8	9	24	34	15

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cienciano	Deportivo Garcilaso
Juan Pablo II College	0-2 L	4-1 W
AD Tarma	2-3 L	1-0 W
Cusco FC	2-1 W	0-0 D
Deportivo Binacional	2-0 W	4-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Deportivo Garcilaso (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Cienciano

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/08	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
03/08	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-0	7	0	W
30/07	Lanus Copa Sudamericana	3-0	4-0	6	5	W
25/07	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-2	5	3	L
23/07	Lanus Copa Sudamericana	0-1	0-2	0	7	L
18/07	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-3	2	6	L
10/07	AD Tarma Peru Copa de la Liga	0-1	2-3	7	1	L
29/06	Cusco FC Peru Copa de la Liga	1-1	2-1	3	5	W
22/06	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Copa de la Liga	1-1	2-1	4	11	W
14/06	Deportivo Binacional Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	2-0	8	6	W

Deportivo Garcilaso

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
02/08	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
27/07	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	2-0	2-1	2	3	W
17/07	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
12/07	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
29/06	Deportivo Binacional Peru Copa de la Liga	2-1	4-1	–	–	W
22/06	Cienciano Peru Copa de la Liga	1-1	1-2	1	11	L
15/06	Cusco FC Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
30/05	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	2-0	4-1	0	4	W
25/05	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	3	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cienciano vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cienciano win (47%). Probabilities: Cienciano 47%, draw 28%, Deportivo Garcilaso 25%.

How many goals are expected in Cienciano vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

The model expects 2.58 goals (Cienciano 1.52 · Deportivo Garcilaso 1.06), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Cienciano vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.