Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 24/08, 00:15
Prediction: River Plate vs Velez Sarsfield
Team pages: River Plate · Velez Sarsfield
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2Total
River Plate1.35
Velez Sarsfield0.65
1X2
River Plate
Draw
Velez Sarsfield
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 61%
Not both to score 54%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
River Plate
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Velez Sarsfield
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
River Plate
2–2–2
Velez Sarsfield
(6 last)
- Velez Sarsfield1-0River Plate
- Velez Sarsfield0-0River Plate
- River Plate4-1Velez Sarsfield
- River Plate1-1Velez Sarsfield
- River Plate5-0Velez Sarsfield
- Velez Sarsfield2-0River Plate
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · River Plate 1456 · Velez Sarsfield 1548
| River Plate | Draw | Velez Sarsfield | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 31% | 17% |
| Market | 53% | 29% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
2 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Velez Sarsfield (rating 1456 vs 1548).
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| River Plate | Velez Sarsfield | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.3 | 1.2 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.8 | 0.7 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5.5 | 2.3 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.1 | 5.5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · River Plate 2–2–2 Velez Sarsfield
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/02/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | Velez Sarsfield | 1-0 HT 1-0 | River Plate |
| 16/11/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | Velez Sarsfield | 0-0 HT 0-0 | River Plate |
| 05/05/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | River Plate | 4-1 HT 3-1 | Velez Sarsfield |
| 19/10/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | River Plate | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Velez Sarsfield |
| 04/02/24 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | River Plate | 5-0 HT 4-0 | Velez Sarsfield |
| 03/09/23 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | Velez Sarsfield | 2-0 HT 1-0 | River Plate |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentinos Jrs | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 12 |
| 2 | Belgrano | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 10 |
| 3 | Sarmiento | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 9 |
| 4 | Barracas Central | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Gimnasia LP | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 9 |
| 6 | CA Tigre | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 8 |
| 7 | Rosario Central | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 8 | Huracan | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 7 |
| 9 | Independiente Rivadavia | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| 10 | Banfield | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| 11 | Atlético Tucumán | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 12 | Racing Club | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 4 |
| 13 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 4 |
| 14 | River Plate | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 15 | Aldosivi | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 2 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
River Plate
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Argentinos Jrs Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 08/08 | CA Tigre Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 03/08 | Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 8 | L |
| 30/07 | Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 26/07 | Barracas Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 18/07 | Aldosivi Argentina Cup |
0-2 | 1-3 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 03/07 | Flamengo America Friendlies |
2-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 28/05 | Blooming Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | Belgrano Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 21/05 | Bragantino Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
Velez Sarsfield
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 04/08 | CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 31/07 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 25/07 | Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 11/05 | Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 17 | 8 | L |
| 05/05 | Newell's Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 7 | D |
| 01/05 | Gimnasia y Tiro Argentina Cup |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 27/04 | Union Santa Fe Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 10 | D |
| 21/04 | San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 14/04 | Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in River Plate vs Velez Sarsfield?
According to our model, the most likely result is a River Plate win (53%). Probabilities: River Plate 53%, draw 30%, Velez Sarsfield 17%.
How many goals are expected in River Plate vs Velez Sarsfield?
The model expects 2 goals (River Plate 1.35 · Velez Sarsfield 0.65), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in River Plate vs Velez Sarsfield?
The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.