Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 22/08, 23:30
Prediction: CA Independiente vs Independiente Rivadavia
Team pages: CA Independiente · Independiente Rivadavia
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.54Total
CA Independiente1.55
Independiente Rivadavia0.99
1X2
CA Independiente
Draw
Independiente Rivadavia
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
CA Independiente
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Independiente Rivadavia
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
CA Independiente
2–2
Independiente Rivadavia
(4 last)
- Independiente Rivadavia3-2CA Independiente
- CA Independiente1-0Independiente Rivadavia
- Independiente Rivadavia1-0CA Independiente
- Independiente Rivadavia0-1CA Independiente
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · CA Independiente 1494 · Independiente Rivadavia 1539
| CA Independiente | Draw | Independiente Rivadavia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 28% | 23% |
| Market | 48% | 29% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.54 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente Rivadavia (rating 1494 vs 1539).
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| CA Independiente | Independiente Rivadavia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.3 | 1.4 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.4 | 0.7 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 6 | 2 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.2 | 3.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Independiente 2–0–2 Independiente Rivadavia
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | Independiente Rivadavia | 3-2 HT 1-0 | CA Independiente |
| 11/05/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | CA Independiente | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Independiente Rivadavia |
| 27/07/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | Independiente Rivadavia | 1-0 HT 1-0 | CA Independiente |
| 27/01/24 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | Independiente Rivadavia | 0-1 HT 0-0 | CA Independiente |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentinos Jrs | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 12 |
| 2 | Belgrano | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 10 |
| 3 | Barracas Central | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 4 | Gimnasia LP | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 9 |
| 5 | CA Tigre | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 8 |
| 6 | Huracan | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Rosario Central | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 8 | Independiente Rivadavia | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| 9 | Banfield | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| 10 | Sarmiento | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 6 |
| 11 | Atlético Tucumán | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 12 | Racing Club | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 4 |
| 13 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 4 |
| 14 | Aldosivi | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 2 |
| 15 | River Plate | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | CA Independiente | Independiente Rivadavia |
|---|---|---|
| Atlético Tucumán | 0-4 L | 0-0 D |
| Union Santa Fe | 2-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 0 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
CA Independiente
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | Atlético Tucumán Argentina Cup |
0-1 | 0-4 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 09/08 | Platense Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 13 | 4 | L |
| 04/08 | Velez Sarsfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 31/07 | Newell's Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 26/07 | Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 23/05 | Union Santa Fe Argentina Cup |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 9 | W |
| 10/05 | Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 24/04 | Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 19/04 | Defensa y Justicia Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
Independiente Rivadavia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Belgrano Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 12/08 | Fluminense Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 08/08 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 03/08 | Sarmiento Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 31/07 | Huracan Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 26/07 | Atlético Tucumán Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 12/07 | CA Tigre Argentina Cup |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 28/05 | Bolivar Copa Libertadores |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 22/05 | Deportivo La Guaira Copa Libertadores |
2-1 | 4-2 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 10/05 | Union Santa Fe Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in CA Independiente vs Independiente Rivadavia?
According to our model, the most likely result is a CA Independiente win (49%). Probabilities: CA Independiente 49%, draw 29%, Independiente Rivadavia 23%.
How many goals are expected in CA Independiente vs Independiente Rivadavia?
The model expects 2.54 goals (CA Independiente 1.55 · Independiente Rivadavia 0.99), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in CA Independiente vs Independiente Rivadavia?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.