Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 23/08, 19:45
Prediction: Sarmiento vs Estudiantes LP
Team pages: Sarmiento · Estudiantes LP
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.08Total
Sarmiento0.86
Estudiantes LP1.22
1X2
Sarmiento
Draw
Estudiantes LP
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 66%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Sarmiento
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Estudiantes LP
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sarmiento
2–1–3
Estudiantes LP
(6 last)
- Estudiantes LP1-0Sarmiento
- Sarmiento2-0Estudiantes LP
- Sarmiento3-1Estudiantes LP
- Estudiantes LP2-1Sarmiento
- Estudiantes LP1-1Sarmiento
- Estudiantes LP2-1Sarmiento
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sarmiento 1477 · Estudiantes LP 1512
| Sarmiento | Draw | Estudiantes LP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 25% | 32% | 43% |
| Market | 25% | 32% | 43% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.08 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Estudiantes LP: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sarmiento | Estudiantes LP | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.8 | 1.2 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3.9 | 2.1 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.3 | 4.9 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sarmiento 2–1–3 Estudiantes LP
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/02/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | Estudiantes LP | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Sarmiento |
| 14/06/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | Sarmiento | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Estudiantes LP |
| 09/03/24 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | Sarmiento | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Estudiantes LP |
| 24/10/23 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | Estudiantes LP | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Sarmiento |
| 25/02/23 Argentina Liga Profesional | Estudiantes LP | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Sarmiento |
| 15/06/22 Argentina Liga Profesional | Estudiantes LP | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Sarmiento |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentinos Jrs | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 12 |
| 2 | Belgrano | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 10 |
| 3 | Sarmiento | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 9 |
| 4 | Barracas Central | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Gimnasia LP | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 9 |
| 6 | CA Tigre | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 8 |
| 7 | Rosario Central | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 8 | Huracan | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 7 |
| 9 | Independiente Rivadavia | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| 10 | Banfield | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| 11 | Atlético Tucumán | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 12 | Racing Club | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 4 |
| 13 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 4 |
| 14 | River Plate | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 15 | Aldosivi | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 2 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sarmiento | Estudiantes LP |
|---|---|---|
| Boca Juniors | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Rosario Central | 1-2 L | 3-0 W |
| Gimnasia LP | 1-2 L | 4-0 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 0 D 3 L | 2 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Estudiantes LP (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sarmiento
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Huracan Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 7 | W |
| 08/08 | Atlético Tucumán Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 03/08 | Independiente Rivadavia Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 29/07 | Banfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 24/07 | Argentinos Jrs Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-3 | 7 | 9 | L |
| 17/07 | Boca Juniors Argentina Cup |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 03/05 | Belgrano Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 26/04 | CA Tigre Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 20/04 | Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 13/04 | Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
Estudiantes LP
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 12/08 | Universidad Catolica Copa Libertadores |
1-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 4 | D |
| 08/08 | Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 7 | L |
| 06/08 | Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 01/08 | Defensa y Justicia Argentina Liga Profesional |
3-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 26/07 | CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 31/05 | Rosario Central Argentina Cup |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 27/05 | Independiente Medellin Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 21/05 | Flamengo Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 10/05 | Racing Club Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sarmiento vs Estudiantes LP?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Estudiantes LP win (43%). Probabilities: Sarmiento 25%, draw 32%, Estudiantes LP 43%.
How many goals are expected in Sarmiento vs Estudiantes LP?
The model expects 2.08 goals (Sarmiento 0.86 · Estudiantes LP 1.22), with a 53% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Sarmiento vs Estudiantes LP?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.