Football · Spain La Liga · 24/08, 19:30

Prediction: Malaga vs Deportivo La Coruna

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.38Total

Malaga1.27

Deportivo La Coruna1.11

1X2

39% 30% 31%

Malaga Draw Deportivo La Coruna

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Malaga 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DWWDDWDDWL

Deportivo La Coruna 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWWLWDWDDW

Head-to-head

Malaga 3–3–0 Deportivo La Coruna (6 last)

Deportivo La Coruna1-1Malaga
Malaga3-0Deportivo La Coruna
Malaga1-1Deportivo La Coruna
Deportivo La Coruna0-0Malaga
Malaga1-0Deportivo La Coruna
Deportivo La Coruna0-2Malaga

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Malaga 1566 · Deportivo La Coruna 1558

	Malaga	Draw	Deportivo La Coruna
Our model	39%	30%	31%
Market	39%	30%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.38 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Malaga: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Malaga	Deportivo La Coruna
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.2	1.5 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.8	2.1 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.2	2.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.10

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.10

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 21.95

Under 21.90

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
20:20 +5’	2.40	3.10	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Malaga 3–3–0 Deportivo La Coruna

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Spain Segunda	Deportivo La Coruna	1-1 HT 0-0	Malaga
12/10/25 Spain Segunda	Malaga	3-0 HT 2-0	Deportivo La Coruna
11/01/25 Spain Segunda	Malaga	1-1 HT 0-0	Deportivo La Coruna
06/10/24 Spain Segunda	Deportivo La Coruna	0-0 HT 0-0	Malaga
08/07/20 Spain Segunda	Malaga	1-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo La Coruna
20/10/19 Spain Segunda	Deportivo La Coruna	0-2 HT 0-1	Malaga

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Athletic Bilbao	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Atletico Madrid	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Osasuna	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Elche	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CD Alaves	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Espanyol	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Barcelona	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Levante	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Malaga	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Racing Santander	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rayo Vallecano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Celta Vigo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Deportivo La Coruna	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Real Betis	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Real Madrid	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Real Sociedad	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sevilla	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Valencia	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Villarreal	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Malaga

DWWDDWDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	AD Ceuta FC Europe Friendlies	1-2	1-2	0	4	L
06/08	Al-Arabi Doha World Club Friendlies	1-1	4-2	4	3	W
30/07	Al Ittihad Jeddah World Club Friendlies	0-2	2-2	9	1	D
25/07	Leicester Europe Friendlies	0-1	3-3	4	1	D
20/06	Almeria Spain Segunda	0-0	2-1	7	6	W
14/06	Almeria Spain Segunda	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
10/06	Las Palmas Spain Segunda	0-1	1-1	7	2	D
07/06	Las Palmas Spain Segunda	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
31/05	Real Zaragoza Spain Segunda	1-0	2-0	6	2	W
24/05	Racing Santander Spain Segunda	1-0	1-1	5	6	D

Deportivo La Coruna

WWWLWDWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Genoa Elite Club Friendlies	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
06/08	Fiorentina Europe Friendlies	0-1	1-1	2	4	D
01/08	St Pauli Elite Club Friendlies	0-1	2-2	2	0	D
29/07	Lugo Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-0	7	3	W
25/07	Oviedo Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
18/07	Compostela Europe Friendlies	1-0	4-0	5	0	W
31/05	Las Palmas Spain Segunda	1-2	1-2	1	1	L
24/05	Valladolid Spain Segunda	2-0	2-0	3	7	W
17/05	FC Andorra Spain Segunda	0-1	2-1	2	6	W
08/05	Cadiz Spain Segunda	0-0	1-0	9	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Malaga vs Deportivo La Coruna?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Malaga win (39%). Probabilities: Malaga 39%, draw 30%, Deportivo La Coruna 31%.

How many goals are expected in Malaga vs Deportivo La Coruna?

The model expects 2.38 goals (Malaga 1.27 · Deportivo La Coruna 1.11), with a 54% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Malaga vs Deportivo La Coruna?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.