Football · Japan FA Cup · 19/08, 12:00

Prediction: Kagoshima United vs Renofa Yamaguchi

Team pages: Kagoshima United · Renofa Yamaguchi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.47Total

Kagoshima United1.5

Renofa Yamaguchi0.97

1X2

49% 28% 23%

Kagoshima United Draw Renofa Yamaguchi

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Kagoshima United 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Renofa Yamaguchi 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLDDDLLW

Head-to-head

Kagoshima United 1–1–4 Renofa Yamaguchi (6 last)

Renofa Yamaguchi2-1Kagoshima United
Kagoshima United1-0Renofa Yamaguchi
Renofa Yamaguchi1-0Kagoshima United
Kagoshima United0-1Renofa Yamaguchi
Kagoshima United0-0Renofa Yamaguchi
Renofa Yamaguchi1-0Kagoshima United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kagoshima United 1552 · Renofa Yamaguchi 1495

	Kagoshima United	Draw	Renofa Yamaguchi
Our model	48%	28%	23%
Market	49%	28%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.47 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kagoshima United (rating 1552 vs 1495).
H2H favours Renofa Yamaguchi: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kagoshima United	Renofa Yamaguchi
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.7	1.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 7.2	2 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0	2.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.25

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
04:18 +9’	1.83	3.25	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Kagoshima United 1–1–4 Renofa Yamaguchi

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	Renofa Yamaguchi	2-1 HT 1-1	Kagoshima United
22/02/26 Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	Kagoshima United	1-0 HT 0-0	Renofa Yamaguchi
06/07/24 Japan J2-League	Renofa Yamaguchi	1-0 HT 0-0	Kagoshima United
28/04/24 Japan J2-League	Kagoshima United	0-1 HT 0-1	Renofa Yamaguchi
20/10/19 Japan J2-League	Kagoshima United	0-0 HT 0-0	Renofa Yamaguchi
14/04/19 Japan J2-League	Renofa Yamaguchi	1-0 HT 0-0	Kagoshima United

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kagoshima United	Renofa Yamaguchi
Roasso Kumamoto	2-1 W	1-1 D
Reilac Shiga	0-1 L	4-1 W
FC Ryukyu	1-1 D	1-0 W
Sagan Tosu	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Renofa Yamaguchi (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Kagoshima United

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Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Nara Club Japan J3-League	1-1	3-1	3	4	W
08/08	Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League	1-0	1-0	8	3	W
07/06	Blaublitz Akita Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	2-0	2-0	7	1	W
30/05	Albirex Niigata Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
24/05	Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	2-1	5-1	9	2	W
17/05	Roasso Kumamoto Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	2-1	6	2	W
10/05	Reilac Shiga Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
06/05	Oita Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	0-1	7	2	L
03/05	FC Ryukyu Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	1-1	1-1	12	1	D
29/04	Sagan Tosu Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	1-0	1-1	5	3	D

Renofa Yamaguchi

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Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League	1-0	1-0	9	3	W
08/08	Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League	0-1	0-1	6	1	L
06/06	Yokohama FC Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-1	1-2	1	4	L
30/05	Kochi United Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	2-0	2-2	1	2	D
23/05	Roasso Kumamoto Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	1-0	1-1	8	3	D
16/05	Sagan Tosu Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	1-1	2	1	D
09/05	Tegevajaro Miyazaki Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
06/05	Reilac Shiga Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	2-0	4-1	7	0	W
02/05	Gainare Tottori Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-3	1-4	1	2	L
29/04	FC Ryukyu Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	2-0	2-0	8	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kagoshima United vs Renofa Yamaguchi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Kagoshima United win (49%). Probabilities: Kagoshima United 49%, draw 28%, Renofa Yamaguchi 23%.

How many goals are expected in Kagoshima United vs Renofa Yamaguchi?

The model expects 2.47 goals (Kagoshima United 1.5 · Renofa Yamaguchi 0.97), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Kagoshima United vs Renofa Yamaguchi?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.