Football · Bolivia Copa Division Profesional · 05/10, 01:30

Prediction: Independiente Petrolero vs Bolivar

Team pages: Independiente Petrolero · Bolivar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.61Total

Independiente Petrolero1.62

Bolivar1.99

1X2

30% 24% 45%

Independiente Petrolero Draw Bolivar

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Independiente Petrolero 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLWLWLDWWW

Bolivar 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWWLWWDDWW

Head-to-head

Independiente Petrolero 2–1–3 Bolivar (6 last)

Bolivar1-1Independiente Petrolero
Independiente Petrolero0-4Bolivar
Bolivar1-2Independiente Petrolero
Independiente Petrolero1-2Bolivar
Independiente Petrolero0-3Bolivar
Bolivar2-3Independiente Petrolero

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Independiente Petrolero 1493 · Bolivar 1617

	Independiente Petrolero	Draw	Bolivar
Our model	31%	23%	46%
Market	30%	25%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 3.61 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bolivar (rating 1493 vs 1617).
H2H favours Bolivar: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Independiente Petrolero	Bolivar
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.9	2.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	1.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.3	2.8 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.3	4.9 / 1.1

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.60

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.52.00

Under 3.51.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
21:11 +12’	3.00	3.60	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente Petrolero 2–1–3 Bolivar

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/09/26 Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	Bolivar	1-1 HT 0-0	Independiente Petrolero
06/09/26 Bolivia Primera Division	Independiente Petrolero	0-4 HT 0-2	Bolivar
22/04/26 Bolivia Primera Division	Bolivar	1-2 HT 1-1	Independiente Petrolero
07/12/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Independiente Petrolero	1-2 HT 1-1	Bolivar
25/10/25 Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	Independiente Petrolero	0-3 HT 0-1	Bolivar
04/10/25 Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	Bolivar	2-3 HT 1-2	Independiente Petrolero

Standings · Bolivia Copa Division Profesional · Copa Bolivia 2026, Group D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bolivar	6	4	2	0	13	6	14
2	Independiente Petrolero	6	4	1	1	15	8	13
3	GV San Jose	6	1	0	5	8	14	3
4	Blooming	6	1	0	5	8	16	3

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Independiente Petrolero	Bolivar
Blooming	1-0 W	3-0 W
GV San Jose	3-1 W	3-2 W
Nacional Potosi	1-2 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Independiente Petrolero (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Independiente Petrolero

LLWLWLDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/10	Blooming Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
27/09	GV San Jose Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	0-0	3-1	3	2	W
22/09	Real Tomayapo Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	4-0	5-1	4	3	W
11/09	Bolivar Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	0-0	1-1	1	3	D
01/09	Real Tomayapo Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	0-2	0-3	3	2	L
20/08	Blooming Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	1-2	5-2	6	4	W
09/11	Nacional Potosi Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	0-2	1-2	1	4	L
30/10	Real Tomayapo Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	2-0	6-3	4	1	W
27/10	San Antonio Bulo Bulo Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	0-1	1-3	5	4	L
25/10	Bolivar Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	0-1	0-3	3	4	L

Bolivar

DWWLWWDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/10	GV San Jose Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	1-0	3-2	9	8	W
27/09	Blooming Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	0-0	3-0	5	6	W
20/09	The Strongest Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	1-1	1-1	9	7	D
11/09	Independiente Petrolero Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	0-0	1-1	14	3	D
02/09	GV San Jose Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	7	6	W
30/08	The Strongest Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	3-1	4-2	2	2	W
23/12	Nacional Potosi Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	1-2	1-4	4	8	L
20/12	Nacional Potosi Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	2-0	2-0	3	7	W
19/12	Blooming Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	4-0	5-0	5	4	W
16/12	Blooming Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	0-1	1-1	4	9	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Independiente Petrolero vs Bolivar?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Bolivar win (45%). Probabilities: Independiente Petrolero 30%, draw 24%, Bolivar 45%.

How many goals are expected in Independiente Petrolero vs Bolivar?

The model expects 3.61 goals (Independiente Petrolero 1.62 · Bolivar 1.99), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Independiente Petrolero vs Bolivar?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.