Football · San Marino Campionato · 04/09, 21:15

Prediction: FC Fiorentino vs SS Virtus

Team pages: FC Fiorentino · SS Virtus

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.17Total

FC Fiorentino0.85

SS Virtus2.32

1X2

12% 19% 70%

FC Fiorentino Draw SS Virtus

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

0-2 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Fiorentino 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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SS Virtus 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Fiorentino 1–5 SS Virtus (6 last)

SS Virtus3-0FC Fiorentino
FC Fiorentino0-4SS Virtus
SS Virtus2-0FC Fiorentino
FC Fiorentino0-4SS Virtus
FC Fiorentino3-1SS Virtus
SS Virtus4-0FC Fiorentino

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Fiorentino 1499 · SS Virtus 1585

	FC Fiorentino	Draw	SS Virtus
Our model	11%	19%	69%
Market	12%	18%	70%

Estimated total (ours) 3.17 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SS Virtus (rating 1499 vs 1585).
H2H favours SS Virtus: 5-0-1.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Fiorentino	SS Virtus
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1	2.7 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.5	1.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.9	2.3 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	3.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

17.50

X5.00

21.28

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.75)1.80

2 (-1.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	1.28 → 1.28	Bet365 1.28

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
18:33 +2’	7.50	5.00	1.28

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Fiorentino 1–0–5 SS Virtus

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/02/26 San Marino Campionato	SS Virtus	3-0 HT 0-0	FC Fiorentino
18/10/25 San Marino Campionato	FC Fiorentino	0-4 HT 0-2	SS Virtus
02/02/25 San Marino Campionato	SS Virtus	2-0 HT 1-0	FC Fiorentino
28/09/24 San Marino Campionato	FC Fiorentino	0-4 HT 0-2	SS Virtus
10/02/24 San Marino Campionato	FC Fiorentino	3-1 HT 1-0	SS Virtus
06/10/23 San Marino Campionato	SS Virtus	4-0 HT 4-0	FC Fiorentino

Standings · San Marino Campionato

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SS Folgore/Falciano	1	1	0	0	5	0	3
2	Juvenes/Dogana	1	1	0	0	4	0	3
3	FC Fiorentino	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
4	Tre Penne	1	1	0	0	3	2	3
5	SP Domagnano	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
6	AC Libertas	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
6	SS Cosmos	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
8	SS Virtus	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	La Fiorita	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Tre Fiori	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Pennarossa	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	SS San Giovanni	1	0	0	1	2	3	0
13	SP Cailungo	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
14	San Marino Academy U22	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
15	SC Faetano	1	0	0	1	0	4	0
16	SS Murata	1	0	0	1	0	5	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Fiorentino	SS Virtus
La Fiorita	3-2 W	0-0 D
SS Murata	4-1 W	4-1 W
AC Libertas	1-1 D	9-0 W
SP Cailungo	3-1 W	6-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: SS Virtus (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Fiorentino

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	San Marino Academy U22 San Marino Campionato	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
05/05	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	2-1	3-2	4	5	W
02/05	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
25/04	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	1-1	1-2	3	1	L
18/04	SS Murata San Marino Campionato	3-1	4-1	4	1	W
11/04	SC Faetano San Marino Campionato	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
07/04	San Marino Academy U22 San Marino Campionato	1-0	3-0	3	4	W
21/03	AC Libertas San Marino Campionato	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
15/03	SP Cailungo San Marino Campionato	2-0	3-1	–	–	W
07/03	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-0	6	6	W

SS Virtus

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
16/05	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
12/05	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	0-2	1-2	8	8	L
09/05	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	1-0	2-1	6	5	W
06/05	Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato	1-0	2-0	6	1	W
03/05	Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
26/04	AC Libertas San Marino Campionato	4-0	9-0	6	2	W
19/04	SP Cailungo San Marino Campionato	2-1	6-1	16	1	W
12/04	SS Murata San Marino Campionato	3-0	4-1	–	–	W
08/04	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-1	1-1	3	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Fiorentino vs SS Virtus?

According to our model, the most likely result is an SS Virtus win (70%). Probabilities: FC Fiorentino 12%, draw 19%, SS Virtus 70%.

How many goals are expected in FC Fiorentino vs SS Virtus?

The model expects 3.17 goals (FC Fiorentino 0.85 · SS Virtus 2.32), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Fiorentino vs SS Virtus?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.