Football · San Marino Campionato · 13/09, 15:00

Prediction: SS Cosmos vs Pennarossa

Team pages: SS Cosmos · Pennarossa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.28Total

SS Cosmos1.39

Pennarossa0.89

1X2

48% 28% 24%

SS Cosmos Draw Pennarossa

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

SS Cosmos 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDLLWWDDDL

Pennarossa 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLWWWDDLLL

Head-to-head

SS Cosmos 4–1–1 Pennarossa (6 last)

SS Cosmos3-0Pennarossa
SS Cosmos0-1Pennarossa
Pennarossa1-1SS Cosmos
Pennarossa2-3SS Cosmos
SS Cosmos4-0Pennarossa
SS Cosmos6-2Pennarossa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SS Cosmos 1513 · Pennarossa 1479

	SS Cosmos	Draw	Pennarossa
Our model	47%	30%	23%
Market	49%	26%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.28 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours SS Cosmos: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SS Cosmos	Pennarossa
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 0.8	0.9 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3	2.2 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.1 / 0.3	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.40

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Pinn 1.85 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11% Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
18:39 +7’	1.83	3.40	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:11 +55’	1.85	3.27	3.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SS Cosmos 4–1–1 Pennarossa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/04/26 San Marino Campionato	SS Cosmos	3-0 HT 1-0	Pennarossa
12/04/26 San Marino Campionato	SS Cosmos	0-1 HT 0-0	Pennarossa
14/12/25 San Marino Campionato	Pennarossa	1-1 HT 0-1	SS Cosmos
01/02/25 San Marino Campionato	Pennarossa	2-3 HT 0-1	SS Cosmos
28/09/24 San Marino Campionato	SS Cosmos	4-0 HT 1-0	Pennarossa
12/03/24 San Marino Campionato	SS Cosmos	6-2 HT 4-0	Pennarossa

Standings · San Marino Campionato

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tre Fiori	3	3	0	0	12	2	9
2	Tre Penne	3	3	0	0	7	2	9
3	SS Virtus	3	2	1	0	3	0	7
4	SS Folgore/Falciano	2	2	0	0	6	0	6
5	SP Domagnano	3	2	0	1	6	4	6
6	FC Fiorentino	3	1	1	1	3	2	4
7	AC Libertas	3	1	1	1	3	4	4
8	SS San Giovanni	3	1	0	2	4	7	3
9	Juvenes/Dogana	2	1	0	1	5	2	3
10	La Fiorita	3	0	3	0	2	2	3
11	SS Murata	3	1	0	2	4	8	3
12	SS Cosmos	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
12	San Marino Academy U22	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
14	SP Cailungo	3	0	0	3	1	5	0
15	Pennarossa	2	0	0	2	3	9	0
16	SC Faetano	2	0	0	2	0	8	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SS Cosmos	Pennarossa
AC Libertas	1-1 D	0-1 L
La Fiorita	1-3 L	0-5 L
SP Cailungo	2-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: SS Cosmos (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SS Cosmos

WDLLWWDDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-2	3	11	L
29/08	AC Libertas San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	3	7	D
06/05	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	4	10	D
03/05	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
29/04	Pennarossa San Marino Campionato	1-0	3-0	2	7	W
26/04	SC Faetano San Marino Campionato	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
19/04	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	1-3	1-3	1	0	L
12/04	Pennarossa San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
08/04	SS Folgore/Falciano San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
21/03	SP Cailungo San Marino Campionato	1-0	2-1	–	–	W

Pennarossa

LLWWWDDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	SS Murata San Marino Campionato	1-2	1-4	7	4	L
30/08	Tre Fiori San Marino Campionato	1-1	2-5	5	3	L
29/04	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-3	3	7	L
26/04	Tre Fiori San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	1	0	D
18/04	Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	4	10	D
12/04	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
07/04	SP Cailungo San Marino Campionato	0-0	2-1	9	2	W
21/03	SS Murata San Marino Campionato	1-0	2-0	9	5	W
14/03	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	0-2	0-5	5	1	L
07/03	AC Libertas San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-1	6	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SS Cosmos vs Pennarossa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SS Cosmos win (48%). Probabilities: SS Cosmos 48%, draw 28%, Pennarossa 24%.

How many goals are expected in SS Cosmos vs Pennarossa?

The model expects 2.28 goals (SS Cosmos 1.39 · Pennarossa 0.89), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in SS Cosmos vs Pennarossa?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.