Football · San Marino Campionato · 12/09, 15:00

Prediction: SP Cailungo vs Tre Penne

Team pages: SP Cailungo · Tre Penne

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.6Total

SP Cailungo0.8

Tre Penne2.8

1X2

7% 13% 80%

SP Cailungo Draw Tre Penne

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

0-2 11%

Recent form · 10 last

SP Cailungo 0-1-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLDLL

Tre Penne 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWWDDDLWWW

Head-to-head

SP Cailungo 0–1–5 Tre Penne (6 last)

Tre Penne6-1SP Cailungo
SP Cailungo0-2Tre Penne
Tre Penne2-1SP Cailungo
Tre Penne4-1SP Cailungo
SP Cailungo2-2Tre Penne
SP Cailungo0-6Tre Penne

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SP Cailungo 1371 · Tre Penne 1607

	SP Cailungo	Draw	Tre Penne
Our model	7%	15%	78%
Market	7%	12%	81%

Estimated total (ours) 3.6 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tre Penne (rating 1371 vs 1607).
H2H favours Tre Penne: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SP Cailungo	Tre Penne
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.8	2.2 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.1	1.1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.4	2.8 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0	5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

113.00

X7.50

21.13

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.25)2.00

2 (-2.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	13.00 → 13.00	Bet365 13.00
X	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50
2	1.13 → 1.13	Bet365 1.13

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.9%

Time*	1	X	2
17:54 +32’	13.00	7.50	1.13

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SP Cailungo 0–1–5 Tre Penne

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 San Marino Campionato	Tre Penne	6-1 HT 3-0	SP Cailungo
14/12/25 San Marino Campionato	SP Cailungo	0-2 HT 0-1	Tre Penne
08/02/25 San Marino Campionato	Tre Penne	2-1 HT 0-1	SP Cailungo
22/10/24 San Marino Cup	Tre Penne	4-1 HT 0-0	SP Cailungo
05/10/24 San Marino Campionato	SP Cailungo	2-2 HT 1-1	Tre Penne
25/09/24 San Marino Cup	SP Cailungo	0-6 HT 0-4	Tre Penne

Standings · San Marino Campionato

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tre Fiori	2	2	0	0	9	2	6
2	SS Folgore/Falciano	2	2	0	0	6	0	6
3	SP Domagnano	2	2	0	0	6	1	6
4	Tre Penne	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
5	AC Libertas	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
6	SS Virtus	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
7	Juvenes/Dogana	2	1	0	1	5	2	3
8	FC Fiorentino	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
9	SS Murata	2	1	0	1	4	6	3
10	La Fiorita	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
11	SS Cosmos	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
11	San Marino Academy U22	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
13	SP Cailungo	2	0	0	2	1	3	0
14	SS San Giovanni	2	0	0	2	2	7	0
15	Pennarossa	2	0	0	2	3	9	0
16	SC Faetano	2	0	0	2	0	8	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SP Cailungo	Tre Penne
SP Domagnano	1-2 L	3-1 W
SS Cosmos	1-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Tre Penne (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SP Cailungo

LLLLLLLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	SS Folgore/Falciano San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
28/08	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	1-1	1-2	5	1	L
25/04	San Marino Academy U22 San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
19/04	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	1-2	1-6	3	1	L
11/04	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-3	1-6	1	4	L
07/04	Pennarossa San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-2	3	2	L
21/03	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
15/03	FC Fiorentino San Marino Campionato	0-2	1-3	–	–	L
08/03	Tre Fiori San Marino Campionato	1-1	2-3	2	3	L
01/03	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-2	7	5	L

Tre Penne

WWWDDDLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	1-0	2-0	6	11	W
29/08	SS San Giovanni San Marino Campionato	2-1	3-2	3	5	W
16/05	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	3-0	3-1	7	0	W
12/05	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-1	5	8	L
09/05	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
06/05	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	3	10	D
03/05	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
26/04	SS San Giovanni San Marino Campionato	2-0	4-0	2	5	W
19/04	AC Libertas San Marino Campionato	0-1	3-1	10	1	W
11/04	SP Cailungo San Marino Campionato	3-0	6-1	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SP Cailungo vs Tre Penne?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Tre Penne win (80%). Probabilities: SP Cailungo 7%, draw 13%, Tre Penne 80%.

How many goals are expected in SP Cailungo vs Tre Penne?

The model expects 3.6 goals (SP Cailungo 0.8 · Tre Penne 2.8), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in SP Cailungo vs Tre Penne?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.