Football · San Marino Campionato · 13/09, 15:00

Prediction: Juvenes/Dogana vs SS Folgore/Falciano

Team pages: Juvenes/Dogana · SS Folgore/Falciano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.62Total

Juvenes/Dogana0.98

SS Folgore/Falciano1.64

1X2

22% 26% 52%

Juvenes/Dogana Draw SS Folgore/Falciano

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Juvenes/Dogana 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DLDDWDDLWL

SS Folgore/Falciano 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DDDDWWWLWW

Head-to-head

Juvenes/Dogana 0–2–4 SS Folgore/Falciano (6 last)

Juvenes/Dogana2-2SS Folgore/Falciano
SS Folgore/Falciano1-1Juvenes/Dogana
SS Folgore/Falciano1-0Juvenes/Dogana
Juvenes/Dogana0-1SS Folgore/Falciano
SS Folgore/Falciano1-0Juvenes/Dogana
Juvenes/Dogana0-1SS Folgore/Falciano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Juvenes/Dogana 1487 · SS Folgore/Falciano 1566

	Juvenes/Dogana	Draw	SS Folgore/Falciano
Our model	21%	27%	52%
Market	22%	25%	53%

Estimated total (ours) 2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SS Folgore/Falciano (rating 1487 vs 1566).
H2H favours SS Folgore/Falciano: 4-2-0.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Juvenes/Dogana	SS Folgore/Falciano
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1	2.3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.2	1.1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4.4	2.9 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.5	3.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.00

X3.60

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.82

2 (-0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	1.70 → 1.70	Pinn 1.82 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
17:45 +61’	4.00	3.60	1.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:19 +48’	3.76	3.22	1.82

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Juvenes/Dogana 0–2–4 SS Folgore/Falciano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 San Marino Campionato	Juvenes/Dogana	2-2 HT 2-0	SS Folgore/Falciano
14/12/25 San Marino Campionato	SS Folgore/Falciano	1-1 HT 0-1	Juvenes/Dogana
15/02/25 San Marino Campionato	SS Folgore/Falciano	1-0 HT 1-0	Juvenes/Dogana
20/10/24 San Marino Campionato	Juvenes/Dogana	0-1 HT 0-0	SS Folgore/Falciano
13/03/24 San Marino Campionato	SS Folgore/Falciano	1-0 HT 0-0	Juvenes/Dogana
03/12/23 San Marino Campionato	Juvenes/Dogana	0-1 HT 0-0	SS Folgore/Falciano

Standings · San Marino Campionato

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tre Fiori	3	3	0	0	12	2	9
2	Tre Penne	3	3	0	0	7	2	9
3	SS Virtus	3	2	1	0	3	0	7
4	SS Folgore/Falciano	2	2	0	0	6	0	6
5	SP Domagnano	3	2	0	1	6	4	6
6	FC Fiorentino	3	1	1	1	3	2	4
7	AC Libertas	3	1	1	1	3	4	4
8	SS San Giovanni	3	1	0	2	4	7	3
9	Juvenes/Dogana	2	1	0	1	5	2	3
10	La Fiorita	3	0	3	0	2	2	3
11	SS Murata	3	1	0	2	4	8	3
12	SS Cosmos	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
12	San Marino Academy U22	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
14	SP Cailungo	3	0	0	3	1	5	0
15	Pennarossa	2	0	0	2	3	9	0
16	SC Faetano	2	0	0	2	0	8	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Juvenes/Dogana	SS Folgore/Falciano
SS Murata	5-2 W	5-0 W
San Marino Academy U22	0-0 D	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: SS Folgore/Falciano (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Juvenes/Dogana

DLDDWDDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	AC Libertas San Marino Campionato	0-1	1-2	4	1	L
28/08	SC Faetano San Marino Campionato	1-0	4-0	8	2	W
06/05	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-2	4	1	L
03/05	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
29/04	AC Libertas San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	5	11	D
26/04	SS Murata San Marino Campionato	2-0	5-2	8	0	W
18/04	Pennarossa San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	4	10	D
12/04	SS Folgore/Falciano San Marino Campionato	2-0	2-2	4	3	D
08/04	AC Libertas San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
22/03	San Marino Academy U22 San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	1	7	D

SS Folgore/Falciano

DDDDWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	SP Cailungo San Marino Campionato	1-0	1-0	9	3	W
28/08	SS Murata San Marino Campionato	3-0	5-0	5	3	W
05/05	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	0-2	1-3	6	4	L
02/05	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
25/04	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	3-2	7-3	1	1	W
19/04	San Marino Academy U22 San Marino Campionato	2-0	3-0	3	2	W
12/04	Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato	0-2	2-2	6	3	D
08/04	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	14	5	D
22/03	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-1	1-1	4	6	D
15/03	SS San Giovanni San Marino Campionato	2-1	2-2	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Juvenes/Dogana vs SS Folgore/Falciano?

According to our model, the most likely result is an SS Folgore/Falciano win (52%). Probabilities: Juvenes/Dogana 22%, draw 26%, SS Folgore/Falciano 52%.

How many goals are expected in Juvenes/Dogana vs SS Folgore/Falciano?

The model expects 2.62 goals (Juvenes/Dogana 0.98 · SS Folgore/Falciano 1.64), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Juvenes/Dogana vs SS Folgore/Falciano?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.