Football · San Marino Campionato · 12/09, 15:00

Prediction: SS Murata vs SS San Giovanni

Team pages: SS Murata · SS San Giovanni

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.99Total

SS Murata1.14

SS San Giovanni1.85

1X2

23% 24% 54%

SS Murata Draw SS San Giovanni

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

SS Murata 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

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SS San Giovanni 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

SS Murata 1–3–2 SS San Giovanni (6 last)

SS San Giovanni2-1SS Murata
SS Murata0-0SS San Giovanni
SS San Giovanni0-0SS Murata
SS Murata1-1SS San Giovanni
SS Murata0-1SS San Giovanni
SS San Giovanni0-1SS Murata

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SS Murata 1399 · SS San Giovanni 1447

	SS Murata	Draw	SS San Giovanni
Our model	22%	25%	53%
Market	23%	23%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 2.99 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SS San Giovanni (rating 1399 vs 1447).
H2H favours SS San Giovanni: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SS Murata	SS San Giovanni
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 3.3	1 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 2.1	0.5 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/0/90%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 1.8	1.4 / 2.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.2	2.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.90

X3.90

21.67

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.93

2 (-0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
18:23 +2’	3.90	3.90	1.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SS Murata 1–3–2 SS San Giovanni

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 San Marino Campionato	SS San Giovanni	2-1 HT 2-0	SS Murata
09/11/25 San Marino Campionato	SS Murata	0-0 HT 0-0	SS San Giovanni
05/04/25 San Marino Campionato	SS San Giovanni	0-0 HT 0-0	SS Murata
07/12/24 San Marino Campionato	SS Murata	1-1 HT 1-1	SS San Giovanni
03/02/24 San Marino Campionato	SS Murata	0-1 HT 0-0	SS San Giovanni
04/10/23 San Marino Campionato	SS San Giovanni	0-1 HT 0-0	SS Murata

Standings · San Marino Campionato

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tre Fiori	2	2	0	0	9	2	6
2	SS Folgore/Falciano	2	2	0	0	6	0	6
3	SP Domagnano	2	2	0	0	6	1	6
4	Tre Penne	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
5	AC Libertas	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
6	SS Virtus	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
7	Juvenes/Dogana	2	1	0	1	5	2	3
8	FC Fiorentino	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
9	SS Murata	2	1	0	1	4	6	3
10	La Fiorita	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
11	SS Cosmos	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
11	San Marino Academy U22	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
13	SP Cailungo	2	0	0	2	1	3	0
14	SS San Giovanni	2	0	0	2	2	7	0
15	Pennarossa	2	0	0	2	3	9	0
16	SC Faetano	2	0	0	2	0	8	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SS Murata	SS San Giovanni
SS Folgore/Falciano	0-5 L	2-2 D
SS Virtus	1-4 L	1-1 D
Tre Penne	0-4 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 3 L	0 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: SS San Giovanni (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SS Murata

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Pennarossa San Marino Campionato	2-1	4-1	2	4	W
28/08	SS Folgore/Falciano San Marino Campionato	0-3	0-5	1	3	L
26/04	Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato	0-2	2-5	1	0	L
18/04	FC Fiorentino San Marino Campionato	1-3	1-4	1	1	L
12/04	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	0-3	1-4	–	–	L
08/04	Tre Fiori San Marino Campionato	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
21/03	Pennarossa San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
15/03	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-3	0-4	–	–	L
07/03	SS San Giovanni San Marino Campionato	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
01/03	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-3	4	2	L

SS San Giovanni

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	0-3	0-4	0	0	L
29/08	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	1-2	2-3	0	5	L
26/04	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-2	0-4	1	5	L
18/04	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	0-2	0-2	1	0	L
11/04	San Marino Academy U22 San Marino Campionato	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
07/04	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	0-2	0-3	4	1	L
21/03	SC Faetano San Marino Campionato	0-0	2-0	9	2	W
15/03	SS Folgore/Falciano San Marino Campionato	1-2	2-2	–	–	D
07/03	SS Murata San Marino Campionato	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
28/02	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	0	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SS Murata vs SS San Giovanni?

According to our model, the most likely result is an SS San Giovanni win (54%). Probabilities: SS Murata 23%, draw 24%, SS San Giovanni 54%.

How many goals are expected in SS Murata vs SS San Giovanni?

The model expects 2.99 goals (SS Murata 1.14 · SS San Giovanni 1.85), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in SS Murata vs SS San Giovanni?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.