Football · San Marino Campionato · 12/09, 15:00

Prediction: SS Virtus vs AC Libertas

Team pages: SS Virtus · AC Libertas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.28Total

SS Virtus2.58

AC Libertas0.71

1X2

77% 15% 8%

SS Virtus Draw AC Libertas

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

SS Virtus 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWDWWLWDW

AC Libertas 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWDWLLLDDW

Head-to-head

SS Virtus 6–0 AC Libertas (6 last)

AC Libertas0-9SS Virtus
SS Virtus3-1AC Libertas
AC Libertas1-3SS Virtus
SS Virtus3-0AC Libertas
AC Libertas0-2SS Virtus
SS Virtus5-2AC Libertas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SS Virtus 1598 · AC Libertas 1459

	SS Virtus	Draw	AC Libertas
Our model	77%	16%	7%
Market	78%	14%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 3.28 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SS Virtus (rating 1598 vs 1459).
H2H favours SS Virtus: 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SS Virtus	AC Libertas
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 0.6	0.9 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6.4	2.5 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.3	3.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.17

X6.50

211.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.80

2 (+2)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.17 → 1.17	Bet365 1.17
X	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50
2	11.00 → 11.00	Bet365 11.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.2%

Time*	1	X	2
18:19 +7’	1.17	6.50	11.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SS Virtus 6–0–0 AC Libertas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 San Marino Campionato	AC Libertas	0-9 HT 0-4	SS Virtus
11/02/26 San Marino Campionato	SS Virtus	3-1 HT 2-1	AC Libertas
10/12/25 San Marino Cup	AC Libertas	1-3 HT 0-0	SS Virtus
26/11/25 San Marino Cup	SS Virtus	3-0 HT 2-0	AC Libertas
29/03/25 San Marino Campionato	AC Libertas	0-2 HT 0-0	SS Virtus
01/12/24 San Marino Campionato	SS Virtus	5-2 HT 2-0	AC Libertas

Standings · San Marino Campionato

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tre Fiori	2	2	0	0	9	2	6
2	SS Folgore/Falciano	2	2	0	0	6	0	6
3	SP Domagnano	2	2	0	0	6	1	6
4	Tre Penne	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
5	AC Libertas	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
6	SS Virtus	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
7	Juvenes/Dogana	2	1	0	1	5	2	3
8	FC Fiorentino	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
9	SS Murata	2	1	0	1	4	6	3
10	La Fiorita	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
11	SS Cosmos	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
11	San Marino Academy U22	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
13	SP Cailungo	2	0	0	2	1	3	0
14	SS San Giovanni	2	0	0	2	2	7	0
15	Pennarossa	2	0	0	2	3	9	0
16	SC Faetano	2	0	0	2	0	8	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SS Virtus	AC Libertas
FC Fiorentino	1-0 W	1-1 D
Juvenes/Dogana	2-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: SS Virtus (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SS Virtus

WWWDWWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	FC Fiorentino San Marino Campionato	1-0	1-0	0	0	W
30/08	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
16/05	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
12/05	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	0-2	1-2	8	8	L
09/05	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	1-0	2-1	6	5	W
06/05	Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato	1-0	2-0	6	1	W
03/05	Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
26/04	AC Libertas San Marino Campionato	4-0	9-0	6	2	W
19/04	SP Cailungo San Marino Campionato	2-1	6-1	16	1	W
12/04	SS Murata San Marino Campionato	3-0	4-1	–	–	W

AC Libertas

WWDWLLLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato	1-0	2-1	4	1	W
29/08	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	3	7	D
29/04	Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	3	11	D
26/04	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	0-4	0-9	4	2	L
19/04	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	1-0	1-3	4	1	L
12/04	Tre Fiori San Marino Campionato	0-2	0-3	0	3	L
08/04	Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
21/03	FC Fiorentino San Marino Campionato	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
15/03	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
07/03	Pennarossa San Marino Campionato	1-0	1-0	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SS Virtus vs AC Libertas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SS Virtus win (77%). Probabilities: SS Virtus 77%, draw 15%, AC Libertas 8%.

How many goals are expected in SS Virtus vs AC Libertas?

The model expects 3.28 goals (SS Virtus 2.58 · AC Libertas 0.71), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in SS Virtus vs AC Libertas?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.