Football · San Marino Campionato · 04/09, 21:15

Prediction: Tre Penne vs SS Cosmos

Team pages: Tre Penne · SS Cosmos

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.37Total

Tre Penne1.85

SS Cosmos0.53

1X2

70% 20% 10%

Tre Penne Draw SS Cosmos

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Tre Penne 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWDDDLWW

SS Cosmos 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LWDLLWWDDD

Head-to-head

Tre Penne 0–4–2 SS Cosmos (6 last)

SS Cosmos0-0Tre Penne
Tre Penne0-0SS Cosmos
Tre Penne1-1SS Cosmos
SS Cosmos3-0Tre Penne
SS Cosmos1-0Tre Penne
Tre Penne1-1SS Cosmos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tre Penne 1574 · SS Cosmos 1497

	Tre Penne	Draw	SS Cosmos
Our model	68%	23%	9%
Market	71%	18%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 2.37 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tre Penne (rating 1574 vs 1497).
H2H favours SS Cosmos: 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tre Penne	SS Cosmos
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 0.8	0.9 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.4	1 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.5	5.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.27

X5.00

28.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.82

2 (+1.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.27 → 1.27	Bet365 1.27
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
16:21 +4’	1.27	5.00	8.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tre Penne 0–4–2 SS Cosmos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/05/26 San Marino Campionato	SS Cosmos	0-0 HT 0-0	Tre Penne
03/05/26 San Marino Campionato	Tre Penne	0-0 HT 0-0	SS Cosmos
15/02/26 San Marino Campionato	Tre Penne	1-1 HT 1-0	SS Cosmos
17/10/25 San Marino Campionato	SS Cosmos	3-0 HT 2-0	Tre Penne
06/05/25 San Marino Campionato	SS Cosmos	1-0 HT 1-0	Tre Penne
03/05/25 San Marino Campionato	Tre Penne	1-1 HT 1-0	SS Cosmos

Standings · San Marino Campionato

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SS Folgore/Falciano	1	1	0	0	5	0	3
2	Juvenes/Dogana	1	1	0	0	4	0	3
3	FC Fiorentino	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
4	Tre Penne	1	1	0	0	3	2	3
5	SP Domagnano	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
6	AC Libertas	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
6	SS Cosmos	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
8	SS Virtus	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	La Fiorita	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Tre Fiori	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Pennarossa	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	SS San Giovanni	1	0	0	1	2	3	0
13	SP Cailungo	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
14	San Marino Academy U22	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
15	SC Faetano	1	0	0	1	0	4	0
16	SS Murata	1	0	0	1	0	5	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tre Penne	SS Cosmos
La Fiorita	0-1 L	1-3 L
AC Libertas	3-1 W	1-1 D
SP Cailungo	6-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Tre Penne (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tre Penne

DWWWDDDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	SS San Giovanni San Marino Campionato	2-1	3-2	3	5	W
16/05	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	3-0	3-1	7	0	W
12/05	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-1	5	8	L
09/05	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
06/05	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	3	10	D
03/05	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
26/04	SS San Giovanni San Marino Campionato	2-0	4-0	2	5	W
19/04	AC Libertas San Marino Campionato	0-1	3-1	10	1	W
11/04	SP Cailungo San Marino Campionato	3-0	6-1	5	4	W
08/04	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	1-0	1-1	5	7	D

SS Cosmos

LWDLLWWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	AC Libertas San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	3	7	D
06/05	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	4	10	D
03/05	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
29/04	Pennarossa San Marino Campionato	1-0	3-0	2	7	W
26/04	SC Faetano San Marino Campionato	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
19/04	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	1-3	1-3	1	0	L
12/04	Pennarossa San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
08/04	SS Folgore/Falciano San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
21/03	SP Cailungo San Marino Campionato	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
15/03	AC Libertas San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tre Penne vs SS Cosmos?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tre Penne win (70%). Probabilities: Tre Penne 70%, draw 20%, SS Cosmos 10%.

How many goals are expected in Tre Penne vs SS Cosmos?

The model expects 2.37 goals (Tre Penne 1.85 · SS Cosmos 0.53), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Tre Penne vs SS Cosmos?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.