Football · San Marino Campionato · 05/09, 15:00

Prediction: AC Libertas vs Juvenes/Dogana

Team pages: AC Libertas · Juvenes/Dogana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.62Total

AC Libertas1.09

Juvenes/Dogana1.53

1X2

27% 27% 47%

AC Libertas Draw Juvenes/Dogana

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

AC Libertas 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWWDWLLLDD

Juvenes/Dogana 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WDLDDWDDLW

Head-to-head

AC Libertas 2–2–2 Juvenes/Dogana (6 last)

Juvenes/Dogana1-1AC Libertas
AC Libertas1-0Juvenes/Dogana
Juvenes/Dogana0-1AC Libertas
AC Libertas0-1Juvenes/Dogana
Juvenes/Dogana1-1AC Libertas
Juvenes/Dogana4-1AC Libertas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AC Libertas 1484 · Juvenes/Dogana 1487

	AC Libertas	Draw	Juvenes/Dogana
Our model	26%	28%	46%
Market	27%	26%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AC Libertas	Juvenes/Dogana
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.2	1.3 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 2.9	1.4 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.4	3.5 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

13.30

X3.50

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:44 +18’	3.30	3.50	1.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · AC Libertas 2–2–2 Juvenes/Dogana

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
29/04/26 San Marino Campionato	Juvenes/Dogana	1-1 HT 0-0	AC Libertas
08/04/26 San Marino Campionato	AC Libertas	1-0 HT 0-0	Juvenes/Dogana
06/12/25 San Marino Campionato	Juvenes/Dogana	0-1 HT 0-1	AC Libertas
21/01/25 San Marino Campionato	AC Libertas	0-1 HT 0-0	Juvenes/Dogana
15/09/24 San Marino Campionato	Juvenes/Dogana	1-1 HT 0-1	AC Libertas
16/03/24 San Marino Campionato	Juvenes/Dogana	4-1 HT 2-1	AC Libertas

Standings · San Marino Campionato

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SS Folgore/Falciano	1	1	0	0	5	0	3
2	Juvenes/Dogana	1	1	0	0	4	0	3
3	Tre Fiori	1	1	0	0	5	2	3
4	FC Fiorentino	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
5	Tre Penne	1	1	0	0	3	2	3
6	SP Domagnano	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
7	AC Libertas	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
7	SS Cosmos	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
9	SS Virtus	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
9	La Fiorita	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
11	SS San Giovanni	1	0	0	1	2	3	0
12	SP Cailungo	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
13	San Marino Academy U22	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
14	Pennarossa	1	0	0	1	2	5	0
15	SC Faetano	1	0	0	1	0	4	0
16	SS Murata	1	0	0	1	0	5	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AC Libertas	Juvenes/Dogana
SS Virtus	0-9 L	0-2 L
Pennarossa	1-0 W	0-0 D
SS Folgore/Falciano	2-4 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Juvenes/Dogana (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AC Libertas

LWWDWLLLDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	3	7	D
29/04	Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	3	11	D
26/04	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	0-4	0-9	4	2	L
19/04	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	1-0	1-3	4	1	L
12/04	Tre Fiori San Marino Campionato	0-2	0-3	0	3	L
08/04	Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
21/03	FC Fiorentino San Marino Campionato	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
15/03	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
07/03	Pennarossa San Marino Campionato	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
01/03	SS Folgore/Falciano San Marino Campionato	1-0	2-4	1	3	L

Juvenes/Dogana

WDLDDWDDLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	SC Faetano San Marino Campionato	1-0	4-0	8	2	W
06/05	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-2	4	1	L
03/05	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
29/04	AC Libertas San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	5	11	D
26/04	SS Murata San Marino Campionato	2-0	5-2	8	0	W
18/04	Pennarossa San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	4	10	D
12/04	SS Folgore/Falciano San Marino Campionato	2-0	2-2	4	3	D
08/04	AC Libertas San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
22/03	San Marino Academy U22 San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	1	7	D
14/03	SC Faetano San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-0	3	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AC Libertas vs Juvenes/Dogana?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Juvenes/Dogana win (47%). Probabilities: AC Libertas 27%, draw 27%, Juvenes/Dogana 47%.

How many goals are expected in AC Libertas vs Juvenes/Dogana?

The model expects 2.62 goals (AC Libertas 1.09 · Juvenes/Dogana 1.53), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in AC Libertas vs Juvenes/Dogana?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.