Football · San Marino Campionato · 04/09, 21:15

Prediction: SP Domagnano vs SS San Giovanni

Team pages: SP Domagnano · SS San Giovanni

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.83Total

SP Domagnano1.89

SS San Giovanni0.93

1X2

59% 23% 18%

SP Domagnano Draw SS San Giovanni

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

SP Domagnano 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WDWLLWLWLW

SS San Giovanni 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDWDWLWLLL

Head-to-head

SP Domagnano 1–4–1 SS San Giovanni (6 last)

SS San Giovanni0-2SP Domagnano
SP Domagnano1-1SS San Giovanni
SS San Giovanni2-2SP Domagnano
SP Domagnano1-1SS San Giovanni
SS San Giovanni1-1SP Domagnano
SP Domagnano0-1SS San Giovanni

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SP Domagnano 1519 · SS San Giovanni 1482

	SP Domagnano	Draw	SS San Giovanni
Our model	59%	24%	17%
Market	60%	22%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.83 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SP Domagnano	SS San Giovanni
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.7	1.2 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.9	0.6 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.8	2.2 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.3	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.00

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.95

2 (+1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
16:21 +3’	1.50	4.00	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SP Domagnano 1–4–1 SS San Giovanni

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 San Marino Campionato	SS San Giovanni	0-2 HT 0-2	SP Domagnano
20/12/25 San Marino Campionato	SP Domagnano	1-1 HT 0-1	SS San Giovanni
19/04/25 San Marino Campionato	SS San Giovanni	2-2 HT 1-0	SP Domagnano
22/12/24 San Marino Campionato	SP Domagnano	1-1 HT 0-1	SS San Giovanni
23/10/24 San Marino Cup	SS San Giovanni	1-1 HT 1-0	SP Domagnano
24/09/24 San Marino Cup	SP Domagnano	0-1 HT 0-1	SS San Giovanni

Standings · San Marino Campionato

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SS Folgore/Falciano	1	1	0	0	5	0	3
2	Juvenes/Dogana	1	1	0	0	4	0	3
3	FC Fiorentino	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
4	Tre Penne	1	1	0	0	3	2	3
5	SP Domagnano	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
6	AC Libertas	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
6	SS Cosmos	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
8	SS Virtus	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	La Fiorita	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Tre Fiori	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Pennarossa	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	SS San Giovanni	1	0	0	1	2	3	0
13	SP Cailungo	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
14	San Marino Academy U22	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
15	SC Faetano	1	0	0	1	0	4	0
16	SS Murata	1	0	0	1	0	5	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SP Domagnano	SS San Giovanni
SP Cailungo	2-1 W	2-1 W
Tre Penne	1-3 L	2-3 L
SS Virtus	2-1 W	1-1 D
SS Folgore/Falciano	3-1 W	2-2 D
La Fiorita	1-1 D	0-3 L
SC Faetano	1-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: SP Domagnano (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SP Domagnano

WDWLLWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	SP Cailungo San Marino Campionato	1-1	2-1	4	1	W
16/05	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-3	1-3	8	0	L
12/05	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	2-0	2-1	0	8	W
09/05	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
05/05	SS Folgore/Falciano San Marino Campionato	2-0	3-1	5	4	W
02/05	SS Folgore/Falciano San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-1	1	3	L
25/04	SS Folgore/Falciano San Marino Campionato	2-3	3-7	3	1	L
18/04	SS San Giovanni San Marino Campionato	2-0	2-0	3	0	W
11/04	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	0-1	1-1	3	7	D
07/04	SC Faetano San Marino Campionato	1-0	1-0	6	4	W

SS San Giovanni

WDWDWLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	1-2	2-3	0	5	L
26/04	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-2	0-4	1	5	L
18/04	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	0-2	0-2	1	0	L
11/04	San Marino Academy U22 San Marino Campionato	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
07/04	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	0-2	0-3	4	1	L
21/03	SC Faetano San Marino Campionato	0-0	2-0	9	2	W
15/03	SS Folgore/Falciano San Marino Campionato	1-2	2-2	–	–	D
07/03	SS Murata San Marino Campionato	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
28/02	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	0	6	D
22/02	SP Cailungo San Marino Campionato	1-1	2-1	8	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SP Domagnano vs SS San Giovanni?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SP Domagnano win (59%). Probabilities: SP Domagnano 59%, draw 23%, SS San Giovanni 18%.

How many goals are expected in SP Domagnano vs SS San Giovanni?

The model expects 2.83 goals (SP Domagnano 1.89 · SS San Giovanni 0.93), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in SP Domagnano vs SS San Giovanni?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.