Football · San Marino Campionato · 04/09, 21:15

Prediction: SC Faetano vs Tre Fiori

Team pages: SC Faetano · Tre Fiori

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.24Total

SC Faetano0.62

Tre Fiori2.62

1X2

5% 12% 82%

SC Faetano Draw Tre Fiori

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

0-2 13%

Recent form · 10 last

SC Faetano 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLWLLL

Tre Fiori 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

LWWWDWWWDW

Head-to-head

SC Faetano 0–1–5 Tre Fiori (6 last)

SC Faetano0-1Tre Fiori
Tre Fiori3-0SC Faetano
SC Faetano1-3Tre Fiori
Tre Fiori2-1SC Faetano
Tre Fiori4-2SC Faetano
Tre Fiori0-0SC Faetano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SC Faetano 1398 · Tre Fiori 1490

	SC Faetano	Draw	Tre Fiori
Our model	6%	15%	79%
Market	5%	10%	85%

Estimated total (ours) 3.24 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tre Fiori (rating 1398 vs 1490).
H2H favours Tre Fiori: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SC Faetano	Tre Fiori
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 2.1	2.2 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	1.1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 1.8	3 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0	2.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

119.00

X9.00

21.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.75)1.80

2 (-2.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	19.00 → 19.00	Bet365 19.00
X	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00
2	1.10 → 1.10	Bet365 1.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:21 +3’	19.00	9.00	1.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SC Faetano 0–1–5 Tre Fiori

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 San Marino Campionato	SC Faetano	0-1 HT 0-0	Tre Fiori
20/12/25 San Marino Campionato	Tre Fiori	3-0 HT 2-0	SC Faetano
29/03/25 San Marino Campionato	SC Faetano	1-3 HT 0-1	Tre Fiori
01/12/24 San Marino Campionato	Tre Fiori	2-1 HT 1-1	SC Faetano
17/02/24 San Marino Campionato	Tre Fiori	4-2 HT 3-0	SC Faetano
26/10/23 San Marino Cup	Tre Fiori	0-0 HT 0-0	SC Faetano

Standings · San Marino Campionato

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SS Folgore/Falciano	1	1	0	0	5	0	3
2	Juvenes/Dogana	1	1	0	0	4	0	3
3	FC Fiorentino	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
4	Tre Penne	1	1	0	0	3	2	3
5	SP Domagnano	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
6	AC Libertas	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
6	SS Cosmos	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
8	SS Virtus	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	La Fiorita	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Tre Fiori	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Pennarossa	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	SS San Giovanni	1	0	0	1	2	3	0
13	SP Cailungo	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
14	San Marino Academy U22	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
15	SC Faetano	1	0	0	1	0	4	0
16	SS Murata	1	0	0	1	0	5	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SC Faetano	Tre Fiori
FC Fiorentino	2-1 W	2-0 W
La Fiorita	1-3 L	0-0 D
SS Virtus	0-2 L	4-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Tre Fiori (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SC Faetano

LLLLLLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-4	1	2	L
26/04	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
19/04	Tre Fiori San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-1	0	3	L
11/04	FC Fiorentino San Marino Campionato	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
07/04	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-1	8	4	L
21/03	SS San Giovanni San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-2	2	2	L
14/03	Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
07/03	San Marino Academy U22 San Marino Campionato	1-2	2-4	0	0	L
28/02	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	1-0	1-3	0	5	L
22/02	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-2	0	0	L

Tre Fiori

LWWWDWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Pennarossa San Marino Campionato	1-1	5-2	4	3	W
26/04	Pennarossa San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	6	0	D
19/04	SC Faetano San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-0	9	3	W
12/04	AC Libertas San Marino Campionato	2-0	3-0	5	3	W
08/04	SS Murata San Marino Campionato	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
22/03	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	1	0	D
14/03	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	4-1	4-1	2	3	W
08/03	SP Cailungo San Marino Campionato	1-1	3-2	5	3	W
28/02	FC Fiorentino San Marino Campionato	1-0	2-0	8	2	W
22/02	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-2	6	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SC Faetano vs Tre Fiori?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Tre Fiori win (82%). Probabilities: SC Faetano 5%, draw 12%, Tre Fiori 82%.

How many goals are expected in SC Faetano vs Tre Fiori?

The model expects 3.24 goals (SC Faetano 0.62 · Tre Fiori 2.62), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in SC Faetano vs Tre Fiori?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.