Football · San Marino Campionato · 05/09, 15:00

Prediction: SS Folgore/Falciano vs SP Cailungo

Team pages: SS Folgore/Falciano · SP Cailungo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.99Total

SS Folgore/Falciano2.99

SP Cailungo0.99

1X2

79% 13% 8%

SS Folgore/Falciano Draw SP Cailungo

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-0 8%

Recent form · 10 last

SS Folgore/Falciano 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DDDDDWWWLW

SP Cailungo 0-1-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLLDL

Head-to-head

SS Folgore/Falciano 6–0 SP Cailungo (6 last)

SP Cailungo0-1SS Folgore/Falciano
SS Folgore/Falciano3-0SP Cailungo
SP Cailungo1-3SS Folgore/Falciano
SS Folgore/Falciano3-0SP Cailungo
SS Folgore/Falciano3-0SP Cailungo
SP Cailungo0-2SS Folgore/Falciano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SS Folgore/Falciano 1563 · SP Cailungo 1380

	SS Folgore/Falciano	Draw	SP Cailungo
Our model	77%	14%	9%
Market	80%	12%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 3.99 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SS Folgore/Falciano (rating 1563 vs 1380).
H2H favours SS Folgore/Falciano: 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SS Folgore/Falciano	SP Cailungo
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.2	1.1 / 2.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.8	0.4 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.6	1.6 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	2.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.14

X7.50

212.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.25)1.80

2 (+2.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.82

Under 3.51.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.14 → 1.14	Bet365 1.14
X	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50
2	12.00 → 12.00	Bet365 12.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:56 +6’	1.14	7.50	12.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SS Folgore/Falciano 6–0–0 SP Cailungo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/01/26 San Marino Campionato	SP Cailungo	0-1 HT 0-1	SS Folgore/Falciano
30/08/25 San Marino Campionato	SS Folgore/Falciano	3-0 HT 3-0	SP Cailungo
02/02/25 San Marino Campionato	SP Cailungo	1-3 HT 0-1	SS Folgore/Falciano
29/09/24 San Marino Campionato	SS Folgore/Falciano	3-0 HT 1-0	SP Cailungo
20/01/24 San Marino Campionato	SS Folgore/Falciano	3-0 HT 1-0	SP Cailungo
16/09/23 San Marino Campionato	SP Cailungo	0-2 HT 0-1	SS Folgore/Falciano

Standings · San Marino Campionato

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SS Folgore/Falciano	1	1	0	0	5	0	3
2	Juvenes/Dogana	1	1	0	0	4	0	3
3	Tre Fiori	1	1	0	0	5	2	3
4	FC Fiorentino	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
5	Tre Penne	1	1	0	0	3	2	3
6	SP Domagnano	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
7	AC Libertas	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
7	SS Cosmos	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
9	SS Virtus	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
9	La Fiorita	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
11	SS San Giovanni	1	0	0	1	2	3	0
12	SP Cailungo	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
13	San Marino Academy U22	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
14	Pennarossa	1	0	0	1	2	5	0
15	SC Faetano	1	0	0	1	0	4	0
16	SS Murata	1	0	0	1	0	5	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SS Folgore/Falciano	SP Cailungo
SP Domagnano	1-3 L	1-2 L
San Marino Academy U22	3-0 W	1-1 D
SS Cosmos	0-0 D	1-2 L
Tre Penne	1-1 D	1-6 L
SS San Giovanni	2-2 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: SS Folgore/Falciano (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SS Folgore/Falciano

DDDDDWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	SS Murata San Marino Campionato	3-0	5-0	5	3	W
05/05	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	0-2	1-3	6	4	L
02/05	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
25/04	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	3-2	7-3	1	1	W
19/04	San Marino Academy U22 San Marino Campionato	2-0	3-0	3	2	W
12/04	Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato	0-2	2-2	6	3	D
08/04	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	14	5	D
22/03	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-1	1-1	4	6	D
15/03	SS San Giovanni San Marino Campionato	2-1	2-2	–	–	D
08/03	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	4	1	D

SP Cailungo

LLLLLLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	1-1	1-2	5	1	L
25/04	San Marino Academy U22 San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
19/04	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	1-2	1-6	3	1	L
11/04	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-3	1-6	1	4	L
07/04	Pennarossa San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-2	3	2	L
21/03	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
15/03	FC Fiorentino San Marino Campionato	0-2	1-3	–	–	L
08/03	Tre Fiori San Marino Campionato	1-1	2-3	2	3	L
01/03	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-2	7	5	L
22/02	SS San Giovanni San Marino Campionato	1-1	1-2	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SS Folgore/Falciano vs SP Cailungo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SS Folgore/Falciano win (79%). Probabilities: SS Folgore/Falciano 79%, draw 13%, SP Cailungo 8%.

How many goals are expected in SS Folgore/Falciano vs SP Cailungo?

The model expects 3.99 goals (SS Folgore/Falciano 2.99 · SP Cailungo 0.99), with a 54% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in SS Folgore/Falciano vs SP Cailungo?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.