Football · Brazil Serie C · 11/08, 01:00

Prediction: Anapolis FC vs Guarani

Team pages: Anapolis FC · Guarani

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.59Total

Anapolis FC1.19

Guarani1.4

1X2

31% 29% 41%

Anapolis FC Draw Guarani

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Anapolis FC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LDWLLWDLLW

Guarani 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWWLDDLW

Head-to-head

Anapolis FC 1–0 Guarani (1 last)

Anapolis FC2-0Guarani

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Anapolis FC 1472 · Guarani 1526

	Anapolis FC	Draw	Guarani
Our model	31%	29%	40%
Market	31%	29%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Guarani (rating 1472 vs 1526).
Cards-heavy: 11.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Anapolis FC	Guarani
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.3	2.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	1.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.5	3.5 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0.4	5.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.10

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.46 ★
2	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.22

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2% Pinnacle margin 9%

Time*	1	X	2
21:15 +4’	2.90	3.10	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:18 +1’	2.80	3.41	2.27
23:03 +2’	2.89▲	3.41	2.21▼
00:38 +1’	2.84▼	3.50▲	2.20▼
02:34	2.85▲	3.46▼	2.22▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Anapolis FC 1–0–0 Guarani

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/07/25 Brazil Serie C	Anapolis FC	2-0 HT 2-0	Guarani

Standings · Brazil Serie C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brusque	15	8	3	4	21	15	27
2	Guarani	15	7	5	3	28	15	26
3	Botafogo PB	15	8	1	6	21	16	25
4	Inter de Limeira	15	7	4	4	18	17	25
5	Santa Cruz FC	15	7	3	5	15	11	24
6	Paysandu	15	7	2	6	23	21	23
7	Maringa FC	15	6	5	4	28	25	23
8	Ferroviaria SP	15	6	5	4	15	12	23
9	Ypiranga RS	15	6	3	6	18	19	21
10	Caxias RS	15	5	6	4	14	12	21
11	Floresta EC	15	5	6	4	16	15	21
12	Amazonas FC	15	6	2	7	15	20	20
13	Figueirense	15	5	5	5	13	18	20
14	Ituano	15	5	4	6	16	17	19
15	Volta Redonda	15	5	3	7	11	19	18
16	Maranhao	15	4	6	5	11	14	18
17	Itabaiana	15	4	5	6	13	18	17
18	Barra FC	15	3	6	6	17	17	15
19	Anapolis FC	15	3	3	9	13	19	12
20	AD Confianca	15	3	3	9	9	15	12

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Anapolis FC	Guarani
Maringa FC	0-1 L	5-0 W
Caxias RS	1-1 D	2-1 W
Amazonas FC	0-1 L	5-0 W
Paysandu	0-4 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Guarani (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Anapolis FC

LDWLLWDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Volta Redonda Brazil Serie C	1-1	4-1	0	3	W
12/07	Maringa FC Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
06/07	Botafogo PB Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-2	1	8	L
01/07	Caxias RS Brazil Serie C	0-0	1-1	4	10	D
20/06	Itabaiana Brazil Serie C	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
13/06	Amazonas FC Brazil Serie C	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
07/06	Paysandu Brazil Copa Verde	0-1	0-4	0	10	L
05/06	Paysandu Brazil Copa Verde	2-0	3-1	6	6	W
31/05	Maranhao Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
28/05	Rio Branco ES Brazil Copa Verde	0-2	1-2	4	6	L

Guarani

WLWWWLDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/07	Inter de Limeira Brazil Serie C	1-1	3-1	8	4	W
12/07	Paysandu Brazil Serie C	2-0	2-3	2	7	L
05/07	Floresta EC Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-0	12	7	D
28/06	Figueirense Brazil Serie C	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
23/06	AD Confianca Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-2	4	7	L
13/06	Caxias RS Brazil Serie C	1-0	2-1	12	6	W
31/05	Amazonas FC Brazil Serie C	3-0	5-0	3	3	W
23/05	Barra FC Brazil Serie C	2-0	2-0	3	3	W
17/05	Ituano Brazil Serie C	1-2	1-3	13	10	L
12/05	Maringa FC Brazil Serie C	3-0	5-0	2	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Anapolis FC vs Guarani?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Guarani win (41%). Probabilities: Anapolis FC 31%, draw 29%, Guarani 41%.

How many goals are expected in Anapolis FC vs Guarani?

The model expects 2.59 goals (Anapolis FC 1.19 · Guarani 1.4), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Anapolis FC vs Guarani?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.