Football · Brazil Serie C · 18/08, 01:00

Prediction: Guarani vs Ypiranga RS

Team pages: Guarani · Ypiranga RS

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.83Total

Guarani1.69

Ypiranga RS1.14

1X2

49% 27% 24%

Guarani Draw Ypiranga RS

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Guarani 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWWWLDDLWL

Ypiranga RS 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLLDWDWLWW

Head-to-head

Guarani 2–1–0 Ypiranga RS (3 last)

Guarani2-1Ypiranga RS
Ypiranga RS2-2Guarani
Guarani2-1Ypiranga RS

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guarani 1502 · Ypiranga RS 1502

	Guarani	Draw	Ypiranga RS
Our model	49%	26%	25%
Market	48%	28%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.83 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Guarani: 2-1-0.
High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Guarani	Ypiranga RS
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.3	1.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 6.4	2.9 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.5	5.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.20

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 09:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.85▲	Bet365 1.85
X	3.25 → 3.20▼	Pinn 3.42
2	4.20 → 3.75▼	Pinn 4.24 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
23:50 +2’	1.73	3.25	4.20
01:09 +6’	2.15▲	3.00▼	3.10▼
09:20 +8’	1.85▼	3.20▲	3.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:27	1.69	3.42	4.22
10:48 +1’	1.69▼	3.42	4.24▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Guarani 2–1–0 Ypiranga RS

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/08/25 Brazil Serie C	Guarani	2-1 HT 1-1	Ypiranga RS
18/09/16 Brazil Serie C	Ypiranga RS	2-2 HT 1-2	Guarani
17/07/16 Brazil Serie C	Guarani	2-1 HT 2-1	Ypiranga RS

Standings · Brazil Serie C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Inter de Limeira	16	8	4	4	20	17	28
2	Brusque	16	8	3	5	22	17	27
3	Botafogo PB	16	8	2	6	23	18	26
4	Paysandu	16	8	2	6	25	22	26
5	Guarani	16	7	5	4	29	17	26
6	Santa Cruz FC	16	7	4	5	17	13	25
7	Ypiranga RS	16	7	3	6	22	20	24
8	Caxias RS	16	6	6	4	16	12	24
9	Ferroviaria SP	16	6	6	4	17	14	24
10	Amazonas FC	16	7	2	7	18	20	23
11	Maringa FC	16	6	5	5	28	28	23
12	Ituano	16	6	4	6	18	17	22
13	Floresta EC	16	5	6	5	17	19	21
14	Maranhao	16	5	6	5	13	15	21
15	Figueirense	16	5	6	5	15	20	21
16	Volta Redonda	16	5	3	8	11	21	18
17	Itabaiana	16	4	5	7	13	20	17
18	Anapolis FC	16	4	3	9	15	20	15
19	Barra FC	16	3	6	7	17	19	15
20	AD Confianca	16	3	3	10	10	17	12

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Guarani	Ypiranga RS
Inter de Limeira	3-1 W	1-2 L
Paysandu	2-3 L	1-0 W
Floresta EC	0-0 D	4-1 W
AD Confianca	0-2 L	1-1 D
Barra FC	2-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Ypiranga RS (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Guarani

LWWWLDDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/08	Anapolis FC Brazil Serie C	1-1	1-2	2	8	L
28/07	Inter de Limeira Brazil Serie C	1-1	3-1	8	4	W
12/07	Paysandu Brazil Serie C	2-0	2-3	2	7	L
05/07	Floresta EC Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-0	12	7	D
28/06	Figueirense Brazil Serie C	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
23/06	AD Confianca Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-2	4	7	L
13/06	Caxias RS Brazil Serie C	1-0	2-1	12	6	W
31/05	Amazonas FC Brazil Serie C	3-0	5-0	3	3	W
23/05	Barra FC Brazil Serie C	2-0	2-0	3	3	W
17/05	Ituano Brazil Serie C	1-2	1-3	13	10	L

Ypiranga RS

LLLDWDWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Floresta EC Brazil Serie C	3-0	4-1	4	6	W
26/07	Barra FC Brazil Serie C	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
12/07	Maranhao Brazil Serie C	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
05/07	Paysandu Brazil Serie C	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
29/06	AD Confianca Brazil Serie C	0-1	1-1	9	4	D
21/06	Santa Cruz FC Brazil Serie C	1-0	1-0	2	8	W
16/06	Botafogo PB Brazil Serie C	1-0	1-1	12	7	D
31/05	Inter de Limeira Brazil Serie C	1-0	1-2	4	7	L
25/05	Volta Redonda Brazil Serie C	0-1	1-2	7	4	L
16/05	Maringa FC Brazil Serie C	1-2	1-4	9	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guarani vs Ypiranga RS?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Guarani win (49%). Probabilities: Guarani 49%, draw 27%, Ypiranga RS 24%.

How many goals are expected in Guarani vs Ypiranga RS?

The model expects 2.83 goals (Guarani 1.69 · Ypiranga RS 1.14), with a 57% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Guarani vs Ypiranga RS?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.