Football · Brazil Serie C · 18/08, 01:00

Prediction: Ferroviaria SP vs Paysandu

Team pages: Ferroviaria SP · Paysandu

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.6Total

Ferroviaria SP1.41

Paysandu1.18

1X2

41% 29% 30%

Ferroviaria SP Draw Paysandu

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Ferroviaria SP 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWDWWLLWDD

Paysandu 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLWLLWLW

Head-to-head

Ferroviaria SP 0–1–1 Paysandu (2 last)

Ferroviaria SP2-2Paysandu
Paysandu2-1Ferroviaria SP

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ferroviaria SP 1534 · Paysandu 1489

	Ferroviaria SP	Draw	Paysandu
Our model	41%	29%	30%
Market	41%	29%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.6 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ferroviaria SP (rating 1534 vs 1489).
High corners: 14.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ferroviaria SP	Paysandu
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.7	1.5 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.1	0.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6.1	3.9 / 8.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.5	5.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.10

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.45 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
23:46 +7’	2.20	3.10	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:27	2.11	2.93	3.37
10:48 +1’	2.14▲	2.99▲	3.45▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ferroviaria SP 0–1–1 Paysandu

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/10/25 Brazil Serie B	Ferroviaria SP	2-2 HT 1-2	Paysandu
01/07/25 Brazil Serie B	Paysandu	2-1 HT 0-1	Ferroviaria SP

Standings · Brazil Serie C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Inter de Limeira	16	8	4	4	20	17	28
2	Brusque	16	8	3	5	22	17	27
3	Botafogo PB	16	8	2	6	23	18	26
4	Paysandu	16	8	2	6	25	22	26
5	Guarani	16	7	5	4	29	17	26
6	Santa Cruz FC	16	7	4	5	17	13	25
7	Ypiranga RS	16	7	3	6	22	20	24
8	Caxias RS	16	6	6	4	16	12	24
9	Ferroviaria SP	16	6	6	4	17	14	24
10	Amazonas FC	16	7	2	7	18	20	23
11	Maringa FC	16	6	5	5	28	28	23
12	Ituano	16	6	4	6	18	17	22
13	Floresta EC	16	5	6	5	17	19	21
14	Maranhao	16	5	6	5	13	15	21
15	Figueirense	16	5	6	5	15	20	21
16	Volta Redonda	16	5	3	8	11	21	18
17	Itabaiana	16	4	5	7	13	20	17
18	Anapolis FC	16	4	3	9	15	20	15
19	Barra FC	16	3	6	7	17	19	15
20	AD Confianca	16	3	3	10	10	17	12

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ferroviaria SP	Paysandu
Figueirense	2-2 D	1-2 L
Maranhao	0-0 D	1-0 W
Inter de Limeira	2-0 W	1-2 L
Santa Cruz FC	1-1 D	1-3 L
Amazonas FC	2-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Ferroviaria SP (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Ferroviaria SP

WWDWWLLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Figueirense Brazil Serie C	1-0	2-2	3	7	D
25/07	Maranhao Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-0	11	8	D
12/07	Ituano Brazil Serie C	0-0	3-1	5	7	W
05/07	Caxias RS Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
28/06	Itabaiana Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-1	3	7	L
21/06	Inter de Limeira Brazil Serie C	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
16/06	Barra FC Brazil Serie C	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
31/05	Santa Cruz FC Brazil Serie C	1-0	1-1	8	6	D
24/05	Amazonas FC Brazil Serie C	0-1	2-1	3	7	W
17/05	Brusque Brazil Serie C	0-0	1-0	8	9	W

Paysandu

LLWLWLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/08	AD Confianca Brazil Serie C	0-1	2-1	7	6	W
27/07	Amazonas FC Brazil Serie C	1-1	1-2	5	6	L
12/07	Guarani Brazil Serie C	0-2	3-2	10	7	W
05/07	Ypiranga RS Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
27/06	Santa Cruz FC Brazil Serie C	0-2	1-3	14	4	L
21/06	Maranhao Brazil Serie C	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
14/06	Inter de Limeira Brazil Serie C	0-0	1-2	12	8	L
07/06	Anapolis FC Brazil Copa Verde	1-0	4-0	13	10	W
05/06	Anapolis FC Brazil Copa Verde	0-2	1-3	11	6	L
01/06	Figueirense Brazil Serie C	1-1	1-2	1	11	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ferroviaria SP vs Paysandu?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ferroviaria SP win (41%). Probabilities: Ferroviaria SP 41%, draw 29%, Paysandu 30%.

How many goals are expected in Ferroviaria SP vs Paysandu?

The model expects 2.6 goals (Ferroviaria SP 1.41 · Paysandu 1.18), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Ferroviaria SP vs Paysandu?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.