Football · Brazil Serie C · 16/08, 21:00

Prediction: Caxias RS vs Figueirense

Team pages: Caxias RS · Figueirense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.94Total

Caxias RS1.24

Figueirense0.7

1X2

49% 30% 21%

Caxias RS Draw Figueirense

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 59% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Caxias RS 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDWLDDWDLW

Figueirense 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

LDWWDDLDWD

Head-to-head

Caxias RS 2–0 Figueirense (2 last)

Figueirense2-3Caxias RS
Caxias RS2-1Figueirense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Caxias RS 1530 · Figueirense 1519

	Caxias RS	Draw	Figueirense
Our model	48%	32%	20%
Market	50%	29%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 1.94 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Caxias RS: 2-0-0.
High corners: 12.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Caxias RS	Figueirense
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.1	0.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.5	3.1 / 7.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.4	5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.10

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 21.85

Under 21.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 1.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Pinn 1.98 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
23:43 +4’	1.80	3.10	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:20	1.96	2.96	3.79
10:40 +2’	1.98▲	3.02▲	3.89▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Caxias RS 2–0–0 Figueirense

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/05/25 Brazil Serie C	Figueirense	2-3 HT 1-2	Caxias RS
02/06/24 Brazil Serie C	Caxias RS	2-1 HT 2-0	Figueirense

Standings · Brazil Serie C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Inter de Limeira	16	8	4	4	20	17	28
2	Brusque	16	8	3	5	22	17	27
3	Botafogo PB	16	8	2	6	23	18	26
4	Paysandu	16	8	2	6	25	22	26
5	Guarani	16	7	5	4	29	17	26
6	Santa Cruz FC	16	7	4	5	17	13	25
7	Ypiranga RS	16	7	3	6	22	20	24
8	Caxias RS	16	6	6	4	16	12	24
9	Ferroviaria SP	16	6	6	4	17	14	24
10	Amazonas FC	16	7	2	7	18	20	23
11	Maringa FC	16	6	5	5	28	28	23
12	Ituano	16	6	4	6	18	17	22
13	Floresta EC	16	5	6	5	17	19	21
14	Maranhao	16	5	6	5	13	15	21
15	Figueirense	16	5	6	5	15	20	21
16	Volta Redonda	16	5	3	8	11	21	18
17	Itabaiana	16	4	5	7	13	20	17
18	Anapolis FC	16	4	3	9	15	20	15
19	Barra FC	16	3	6	7	17	19	15
20	AD Confianca	16	3	3	10	10	17	12

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Caxias RS	Figueirense
Itabaiana	2-0 W	0-1 L
Floresta EC	0-0 D	2-1 W
Ferroviaria SP	1-0 W	2-2 D
Guarani	1-2 L	1-1 D
Ituano	2-1 W	0-0 D
Paysandu	2-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Caxias RS (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Caxias RS

WDWLDDWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Itabaiana Brazil Serie C	1-0	2-0	2	3	W
26/07	Botafogo PB Brazil Serie C	1-0	1-2	12	5	L
11/07	Floresta EC Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-0	11	2	D
05/07	Ferroviaria SP Brazil Serie C	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
01/07	Anapolis FC Brazil Serie C	0-0	1-1	8	10	D
21/06	Maringa FC Brazil Serie C	1-0	1-1	6	9	D
13/06	Guarani Brazil Serie C	0-1	1-2	0	6	L
31/05	Ituano Brazil Serie C	0-0	2-1	3	6	W
24/05	Maranhao Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-0	1	6	D
17/05	Paysandu Brazil Serie C	1-0	2-0	7	5	W

Figueirense

LDWWDDLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Ferroviaria SP Brazil Serie C	0-1	2-2	15	7	D
25/07	Santa Cruz FC Brazil Serie C	1-0	1-0	5	9	W
14/07	Volta Redonda Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-0	15	6	D
07/07	Brusque Brazil Serie C	0-1	1-3	10	6	L
28/06	Guarani Brazil Serie C	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
21/06	Ituano Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
15/06	Floresta EC Brazil Serie C	0-1	2-1	2	3	W
01/06	Paysandu Brazil Serie C	1-1	2-1	6	11	W
24/05	AD Confianca Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
17/05	Itabaiana Brazil Serie C	0-1	0-1	9	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Caxias RS vs Figueirense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Caxias RS win (49%). Probabilities: Caxias RS 49%, draw 30%, Figueirense 21%.

How many goals are expected in Caxias RS vs Figueirense?

The model expects 1.94 goals (Caxias RS 1.24 · Figueirense 0.7), with a 52% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Caxias RS vs Figueirense?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.