Football · Brazil Serie C · 16/08, 23:30

Prediction: AD Confianca vs Maringa FC

Team pages: AD Confianca · Maringa FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.15Total

AD Confianca1.06

Maringa FC1.1

1X2

34% 30% 36%

AD Confianca Draw Maringa FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

AD Confianca 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WDLLWDLLDL

Maringa FC 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WDLDDDWWDL

Head-to-head

AD Confianca 0–1 Maringa FC (1 last)

Maringa FC3-2AD Confianca

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AD Confianca 1469 · Maringa FC 1512

	AD Confianca	Draw	Maringa FC
Our model	33%	32%	35%
Market	34%	29%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.15 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Maringa FC (rating 1469 vs 1512).
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AD Confianca	Maringa FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.1	1.5 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6.7	2.7 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.2	4.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.10

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.15
2	2.45 → 2.45	Pinn 2.87 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
23:43 +7’	2.60	3.10	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:22	2.24	3.12	2.91
10:43	2.35▲	3.15▲	2.87▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · AD Confianca 0–0–1 Maringa FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/25 Brazil Serie C	Maringa FC	3-2 HT 1-1	AD Confianca

Standings · Brazil Serie C

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Inter de Limeira	16	8	4	4	20	17	28
2	Brusque	16	8	3	5	22	17	27
3	Botafogo PB	16	8	2	6	23	18	26
4	Paysandu	16	8	2	6	25	22	26
5	Guarani	16	7	5	4	29	17	26
6	Santa Cruz FC	16	7	4	5	17	13	25
7	Ypiranga RS	16	7	3	6	22	20	24
8	Caxias RS	16	6	6	4	16	12	24
9	Ferroviaria SP	16	6	6	4	17	14	24
10	Amazonas FC	16	7	2	7	18	20	23
11	Maringa FC	16	6	5	5	28	28	23
12	Ituano	16	6	4	6	18	17	22
13	Floresta EC	16	5	6	5	17	19	21
14	Maranhao	16	5	6	5	13	15	21
15	Figueirense	16	5	6	5	15	20	21
16	Volta Redonda	16	5	3	8	11	21	18
17	Itabaiana	16	4	5	7	13	20	17
18	Anapolis FC	16	4	3	9	15	20	15
19	Barra FC	16	3	6	7	17	19	15
20	AD Confianca	16	3	3	10	10	17	12

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AD Confianca	Maringa FC
Botafogo PB	0-2 L	1-2 L
Ypiranga RS	1-1 D	4-1 W
Volta Redonda	0-1 L	4-0 W
Floresta EC	0-1 L	1-1 D
Maranhao	2-1 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Maringa FC (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AD Confianca

WDLLWDLLDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/08	Paysandu Brazil Serie C	1-0	1-2	0	6	L
25/07	Itabaiana Brazil Serie C	0-1	1-1	3	2	D
13/07	Botafogo PB Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-2	8	1	L
05/07	Barra FC Brazil Serie C	1-1	1-2	10	4	L
29/06	Ypiranga RS Brazil Serie C	1-0	1-1	1	4	D
23/06	Guarani Brazil Serie C	0-0	2-0	8	7	W
15/06	Volta Redonda Brazil Serie C	0-1	0-1	9	5	L
30/05	Floresta EC Brazil Serie C	0-1	0-1	11	2	L
24/05	Figueirense Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
19/05	Maranhao Brazil Serie C	1-0	2-1	8	4	W

Maringa FC

WDLDDDWWDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Amazonas FC Brazil Serie C	0-2	0-3	15	6	L
28/07	Floresta EC Brazil Serie C	0-0	1-1	6	0	D
12/07	Anapolis FC Brazil Serie C	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
05/07	Volta Redonda Brazil Serie C	3-0	4-0	4	2	W
27/06	Inter de Limeira Brazil Serie C	0-0	2-2	1	5	D
21/06	Caxias RS Brazil Serie C	0-1	1-1	4	9	D
16/06	Maranhao Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
30/05	Botafogo PB Brazil Serie C	0-2	1-2	4	5	L
24/05	Santa Cruz FC Brazil Serie C	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
16/05	Ypiranga RS Brazil Serie C	2-1	4-1	2	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AD Confianca vs Maringa FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Maringa FC win (36%). Probabilities: AD Confianca 34%, draw 30%, Maringa FC 36%.

How many goals are expected in AD Confianca vs Maringa FC?

The model expects 2.15 goals (AD Confianca 1.06 · Maringa FC 1.1), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in AD Confianca vs Maringa FC?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.