Football · Brazil Serie C · 09/08, 23:30

Prediction: Itabaiana vs Caxias RS

Team pages: Itabaiana · Caxias RS

Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.77Total
Itabaiana0.89
Caxias RS0.88
1X2
33% 33% 33%
Itabaiana Draw Caxias RS
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 54% Not both to score 54%
Most likely score
0-0
Recent form · 10 last
Itabaiana 4-4-2 (W-D-L)
DWDLDLWWWD
Caxias RS 3-5-2 (W-D-L)
DWDWLDDWDL
Head-to-head
Itabaiana 1–0 Caxias RS (1 last)
  • Itabaiana2-1Caxias RS
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Itabaiana 1523 · Caxias RS 1510
ItabaianaDrawCaxias RS
Our model32%36%32%
Market35%31%34%
Estimated total (ours) 1.77 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

  • High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
  • Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

ItabaianaCaxias RS
Goals for / against (FT)0.8 / 0.60.9 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)0.6 / 0.10.3 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)50/40/10%30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)2.6 / 52.3 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)3.9 / 0.15.4 / 0.4

Head-to-head (H2H) · Itabaiana 100 Caxias RS

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DateHomeScoreAway
25/05/25
Brazil Serie C
Itabaiana2-1
HT 0-1
Caxias RS

Standings · Brazil Serie C

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Brusque 15834 211527
2 Guarani 15753 281526
3 Botafogo PB 15816 211625
4 Inter de Limeira 15744 181725
5 Santa Cruz FC 15735 151124
6 Paysandu 15726 232123
7 Maringa FC 15654 282523
8 Ferroviaria SP 15654 151223
9 Ypiranga RS 15636 181921
10 Caxias RS 15564 141221
11 Floresta EC 15564 161521
12 Amazonas FC 15627 152020
13 Figueirense 15555 131820
14 Ituano 15546 161719
15 Volta Redonda 15537 111918
16 Maranhao 15465 111418
17 Itabaiana 15456 131817
18 Barra FC 15366 171715
19 Anapolis FC 15339 131912
20 AD Confianca 15339 91512

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentItabaianaCaxias RS
Ferroviaria SP 1-0 W 1-0 W
Anapolis FC 0-2 L 1-1 D
Ituano 2-2 D 2-1 W
Floresta EC 0-0 D 0-0 D
Record vs common 1 W 2 D 1 L 2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Caxias RS (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Itabaiana

DWDLDLWWWD

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
25/07 AD Confianca
Brazil Serie C
1-0 1-1 72 D
14/07 Brusque
Brazil Serie C
1-0 1-0 63 W
07/07 Amazonas FC
Brazil Serie C
1-0 2-0 71 W
28/06 Ferroviaria SP
Brazil Serie C
0-0 1-0 47 W
20/06 Anapolis FC
Brazil Serie C
0-1 0-2 75 L
14/06 Ituano
Brazil Serie C
2-0 2-2 26 D
30/05 Volta Redonda
Brazil Serie C
0-0 0-1 74 L
24/05 Inter de Limeira
Brazil Serie C
0-0 0-0 34 D
17/05 Figueirense
Brazil Serie C
1-0 1-0 21 W
09/05 Floresta EC
Brazil Serie C
0-0 0-0 57 D

Caxias RS

DWDWLDDWDL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
26/07 Botafogo PB
Brazil Serie C
1-0 1-2 125 L
11/07 Floresta EC
Brazil Serie C
0-0 0-0 112 D
05/07 Ferroviaria SP
Brazil Serie C
0-0 1-0 53 W
01/07 Anapolis FC
Brazil Serie C
0-0 1-1 810 D
21/06 Maringa FC
Brazil Serie C
1-0 1-1 69 D
13/06 Guarani
Brazil Serie C
0-1 1-2 06 L
31/05 Ituano
Brazil Serie C
0-0 2-1 36 W
24/05 Maranhao
Brazil Serie C
0-0 0-0 16 D
17/05 Paysandu
Brazil Serie C
1-0 2-0 75 W
10/05 Barra FC
Brazil Serie C
0-0 0-0 36 D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Itabaiana vs Caxias RS?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Itabaiana win (33%). Probabilities: Itabaiana 33%, draw 33%, Caxias RS 33%.

How many goals are expected in Itabaiana vs Caxias RS?

The model expects 1.77 goals (Itabaiana 0.89 · Caxias RS 0.88), with a 55% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Itabaiana vs Caxias RS?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.