Football · Brazil Serie C · 09/08, 21:00

Prediction: Ypiranga RS vs Floresta EC

Team pages: Ypiranga RS · Floresta EC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.14Total

Ypiranga RS1.31

Floresta EC0.82

1X2

47% 30% 22%

Ypiranga RS Draw Floresta EC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Ypiranga RS 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLLLDWDWLW

Floresta EC 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWLWLLWDDD

Head-to-head

Ypiranga RS 1–1–2 Floresta EC (4 last)

Floresta EC2-1Ypiranga RS
Floresta EC2-2Ypiranga RS
Floresta EC2-0Ypiranga RS
Ypiranga RS2-0Floresta EC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ypiranga RS 1476 · Floresta EC 1498

	Ypiranga RS	Draw	Floresta EC
Our model	47%	31%	22%
Market	47%	30%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.14 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Floresta EC: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ypiranga RS	Floresta EC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.5	1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.9	2 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.1	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.00

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 21.90

Under 21.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90
X	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.06
2	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.30 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
20:56 +11’	1.90	3.00	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:05 +1’	1.88	3.04	4.29
22:57	1.88▼	3.06▲	4.30▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ypiranga RS 1–1–2 Floresta EC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/07/25 Brazil Serie C	Floresta EC	2-1 HT 2-1	Ypiranga RS
13/08/24 Brazil Serie C	Floresta EC	2-2 HT 0-0	Ypiranga RS
15/08/23 Brazil Serie C	Floresta EC	2-0 HT 0-0	Ypiranga RS
08/05/22 Brazil Serie C	Ypiranga RS	2-0 HT 2-0	Floresta EC

Standings · Brazil Serie C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brusque	15	8	3	4	21	15	27
2	Guarani	15	7	5	3	28	15	26
3	Botafogo PB	15	8	1	6	21	16	25
4	Inter de Limeira	15	7	4	4	18	17	25
5	Santa Cruz FC	15	7	3	5	15	11	24
6	Paysandu	15	7	2	6	23	21	23
7	Maringa FC	15	6	5	4	28	25	23
8	Ferroviaria SP	15	6	5	4	15	12	23
9	Ypiranga RS	15	6	3	6	18	19	21
10	Caxias RS	15	5	6	4	14	12	21
11	Floresta EC	15	5	6	4	16	15	21
12	Amazonas FC	15	6	2	7	15	20	20
13	Figueirense	15	5	5	5	13	18	20
14	Ituano	15	5	4	6	16	17	19
15	Volta Redonda	15	5	3	7	11	19	18
16	Maranhao	15	4	6	5	11	14	18
17	Itabaiana	15	4	5	6	13	18	17
18	Barra FC	15	3	6	6	17	17	15
19	Anapolis FC	15	3	3	9	13	19	12
20	AD Confianca	15	3	3	9	9	15	12

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ypiranga RS	Floresta EC
Barra FC	1-0 W	2-1 W
Paysandu	1-0 W	1-2 L
AD Confianca	1-1 D	1-0 W
Maringa FC	1-4 L	1-1 D
Brusque	0-3 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Floresta EC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ypiranga RS

LLLLDWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Barra FC Brazil Serie C	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
12/07	Maranhao Brazil Serie C	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
05/07	Paysandu Brazil Serie C	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
29/06	AD Confianca Brazil Serie C	0-1	1-1	9	4	D
21/06	Santa Cruz FC Brazil Serie C	1-0	1-0	2	8	W
16/06	Botafogo PB Brazil Serie C	1-0	1-1	12	7	D
31/05	Inter de Limeira Brazil Serie C	1-0	1-2	4	7	L
25/05	Volta Redonda Brazil Serie C	0-1	1-2	7	4	L
16/05	Maringa FC Brazil Serie C	1-2	1-4	9	5	L
11/05	Brusque Brazil Serie C	0-1	0-3	4	3	L

Floresta EC

DWLWLLWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/07	Maringa FC Brazil Serie C	0-0	1-1	4	0	D
11/07	Caxias RS Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-0	0	2	D
05/07	Guarani Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
27/06	Barra FC Brazil Serie C	1-0	2-1	9	0	W
21/06	Brusque Brazil Serie C	1-1	1-2	7	2	L
15/06	Figueirense Brazil Serie C	1-0	1-2	1	3	L
30/05	AD Confianca Brazil Serie C	1-0	1-0	8	2	W
26/05	Paysandu Brazil Serie C	0-2	1-2	5	9	L
17/05	Amazonas FC Brazil Serie C	2-1	3-2	3	8	W
09/05	Itabaiana Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-0	1	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ypiranga RS vs Floresta EC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ypiranga RS win (47%). Probabilities: Ypiranga RS 47%, draw 30%, Floresta EC 22%.

How many goals are expected in Ypiranga RS vs Floresta EC?

The model expects 2.14 goals (Ypiranga RS 1.31 · Floresta EC 0.82), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Ypiranga RS vs Floresta EC?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.