Football · Brazil Serie C · 09/08, 21:00

Prediction: Maringa FC vs Amazonas FC

Team pages: Maringa FC · Amazonas FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.96Total

Maringa FC1.95

Amazonas FC1.01

1X2

58% 24% 18%

Maringa FC Draw Amazonas FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Maringa FC 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

LWDLDDDWWD

Amazonas FC 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLWDLLLW

Head-to-head

Maringa FC 0–1 Amazonas FC (1 last)

Maringa FC0-1Amazonas FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Maringa FC 1519 · Amazonas FC 1440

	Maringa FC	Draw	Amazonas FC
Our model	58%	24%	18%
Market	58%	24%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.96 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Maringa FC (rating 1519 vs 1440).
Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Maringa FC	Amazonas FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.3	0.7 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.5	2.3 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.2	5.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.53

X3.70

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.02

2 (+1)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Pinn 1.55
X	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 3.77
2	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.45 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
20:56 +11’	1.53	3.70	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:05 +1’	1.59	3.68	5.24
22:57	1.57▼	3.72▲	5.31▲
04:33 +3’	1.59▲	3.69▼	5.18▼
07:13 +1’	1.55▼	3.77▲	5.45▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Maringa FC 0–0–1 Amazonas FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/24 Copa do Brasil	Maringa FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Amazonas FC

Standings · Brazil Serie C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brusque	15	8	3	4	21	15	27
2	Guarani	15	7	5	3	28	15	26
3	Botafogo PB	15	8	1	6	21	16	25
4	Inter de Limeira	15	7	4	4	18	17	25
5	Santa Cruz FC	15	7	3	5	15	11	24
6	Paysandu	15	7	2	6	23	21	23
7	Maringa FC	15	6	5	4	28	25	23
8	Ferroviaria SP	15	6	5	4	15	12	23
9	Ypiranga RS	15	6	3	6	18	19	21
10	Caxias RS	15	5	6	4	14	12	21
11	Floresta EC	15	5	6	4	16	15	21
12	Amazonas FC	15	6	2	7	15	20	20
13	Figueirense	15	5	5	5	13	18	20
14	Ituano	15	5	4	6	16	17	19
15	Volta Redonda	15	5	3	7	11	19	18
16	Maranhao	15	4	6	5	11	14	18
17	Itabaiana	15	4	5	6	13	18	17
18	Barra FC	15	3	6	6	17	17	15
19	Anapolis FC	15	3	3	9	13	19	12
20	AD Confianca	15	3	3	9	9	15	12

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Maringa FC	Amazonas FC
Floresta EC	1-1 D	2-3 L
Anapolis FC	1-0 W	1-0 W
Volta Redonda	4-0 W	0-3 L
Inter de Limeira	2-2 D	0-1 L
Guarani	0-5 L	0-5 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Maringa FC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Maringa FC

LWDLDDDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/07	Floresta EC Brazil Serie C	0-0	1-1	6	0	D
12/07	Anapolis FC Brazil Serie C	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
05/07	Volta Redonda Brazil Serie C	3-0	4-0	4	2	W
27/06	Inter de Limeira Brazil Serie C	0-0	2-2	1	5	D
21/06	Caxias RS Brazil Serie C	0-1	1-1	4	9	D
16/06	Maranhao Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
30/05	Botafogo PB Brazil Serie C	0-2	1-2	4	5	L
24/05	Santa Cruz FC Brazil Serie C	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
16/05	Ypiranga RS Brazil Serie C	2-1	4-1	2	5	W
12/05	Guarani Brazil Serie C	0-3	0-5	7	9	L

Amazonas FC

LLLLWDLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/07	Paysandu Brazil Serie C	1-1	2-1	5	6	W
12/07	Inter de Limeira Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-1	4	11	L
07/07	Itabaiana Brazil Serie C	0-1	0-2	4	1	L
01/07	Volta Redonda Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-3	12	10	L
21/06	Barra FC Brazil Serie C	1-0	1-1	1	4	D
13/06	Anapolis FC Brazil Serie C	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
31/05	Guarani Brazil Serie C	0-3	0-5	4	3	L
24/05	Ferroviaria SP Brazil Serie C	1-0	1-2	1	7	L
17/05	Floresta EC Brazil Serie C	1-2	2-3	6	8	L
10/05	Figueirense Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-1	6	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Maringa FC vs Amazonas FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Maringa FC win (58%). Probabilities: Maringa FC 58%, draw 24%, Amazonas FC 18%.

How many goals are expected in Maringa FC vs Amazonas FC?

The model expects 2.96 goals (Maringa FC 1.95 · Amazonas FC 1.01), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Maringa FC vs Amazonas FC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.