Football · Brazil Serie C · 09/08, 00:30

Prediction: Ituano vs Barra FC

Team pages: Ituano · Barra FC

Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.12Total
Ituano1.31
Barra FC0.81
1X2
48% 30% 22%
Ituano Draw Barra FC
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 64% Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Ituano 3-3-4 (W-D-L)
WWWLDDDLLL
Barra FC 1-3-6 (W-D-L)
LDLDLDLWLL
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ituano 1477 · Barra FC 1445
ItuanoDrawBarra FC
Our model47%31%22%
Market49%29%23%
Estimated total (ours) 2.12 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

  • Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

ItuanoBarra FC
Goals for / against (FT)0.9 / 10.8 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)0.3 / 0.40.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)20/60/20%20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)3.5 / 7.11.2 / 2.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)5.9 / 0.23.7 / 0.1

Standings · Brazil Serie C

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Brusque 15834 211527
2 Guarani 15753 281526
3 Botafogo PB 15816 211625
4 Inter de Limeira 15744 181725
5 Santa Cruz FC 15735 151124
6 Paysandu 15726 232123
7 Maringa FC 15654 282523
8 Ferroviaria SP 15654 151223
9 Ypiranga RS 15636 181921
10 Caxias RS 15564 141221
11 Floresta EC 15564 161521
12 Amazonas FC 15627 152020
13 Figueirense 15555 131820
14 Ituano 15546 161719
15 Volta Redonda 15537 111918
16 Maranhao 15465 111418
17 Itabaiana 15456 131817
18 Barra FC 15366 171715
19 Anapolis FC 15339 131912
20 AD Confianca 15339 91512

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentItuanoBarra FC
Brusque 0-1 L 2-2 D
Ferroviaria SP 1-3 L 0-1 L
Santa Cruz FC 0-1 L 1-2 L
Guarani 3-1 W 0-2 L
AD Confianca 1-0 W 2-1 W
Record vs common 2 W 0 D 3 L 1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Barra FC (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ituano

WWWLDDDLLL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
26/07 Brusque
Brazil Serie C
0-1 0-1 76 L
12/07 Ferroviaria SP
Brazil Serie C
0-0 1-3 107 L
05/07 Santa Cruz FC
Brazil Serie C
0-0 0-1 94 L
29/06 Maranhao
Brazil Serie C
0-0 0-0 67 D
21/06 Figueirense
Brazil Serie C
0-0 0-0 104 D
14/06 Itabaiana
Brazil Serie C
0-2 2-2 76 D
31/05 Caxias RS
Brazil Serie C
0-0 1-2 46 L
26/05 Botafogo PB
Brazil Serie C
0-0 1-0 45 W
17/05 Guarani
Brazil Serie C
2-1 3-1 710 W
11/05 AD Confianca
Brazil Serie C
1-0 1-0 76 W

Barra FC

LDLDLDLWLL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
26/07 Ypiranga RS
Brazil Serie C
0-0 0-1 36 L
12/07 Santa Cruz FC
Brazil Serie C
0-2 1-2 45 L
05/07 AD Confianca
Brazil Serie C
1-1 2-1 24 W
27/06 Floresta EC
Brazil Serie C
0-1 1-2 10 L
21/06 Amazonas FC
Brazil Serie C
0-1 1-1 44 D
16/06 Ferroviaria SP
Brazil Serie C
0-0 0-1 03 L
02/06 Brusque
Brazil Serie C
1-0 2-2 63 D
23/05 Guarani
Brazil Serie C
0-2 0-2 73 L
17/05 Anapolis FC
Brazil Serie C
1-0 1-1 26 D
15/05 Corinthians
Copa do Brasil
0-0 0-1 04 L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ituano vs Barra FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ituano win (48%). Probabilities: Ituano 48%, draw 30%, Barra FC 22%.

How many goals are expected in Ituano vs Barra FC?

The model expects 2.12 goals (Ituano 1.31 · Barra FC 0.81), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Ituano vs Barra FC?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.