Football · Uruguay Clausura · 11/08, 00:00
Prediction: Deportivo Maldonado vs Racing Club de Montevideo
Team pages: Deportivo Maldonado · Racing Club de Montevideo
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.45Total
Deportivo Maldonado1.26
Racing Club de Montevideo1.19
1X2
Deportivo Maldonado
Draw
Racing Club de Montevideo
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Deportivo Maldonado
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Racing Club de Montevideo
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Deportivo Maldonado
2–2–2
Racing Club de Montevideo
(6 last)
- Racing Club de Montevideo2-4Deportivo Maldonado
- Deportivo Maldonado0-1Racing Club de Montevideo
- Deportivo Maldonado1-1Racing Club de Montevideo
- Racing Club de Montevideo0-1Deportivo Maldonado
- Racing Club de Montevideo1-1Deportivo Maldonado
- Racing Club de Montevideo2-0Deportivo Maldonado
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Deportivo Maldonado 1545 · Racing Club de Montevideo 1494
| Deportivo Maldonado | Draw | Racing Club de Montevideo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 30% | 33% |
| Market | 37% | 30% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.45 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportivo Maldonado (rating 1545 vs 1494).
- High corners: 11 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 11.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Deportivo Maldonado | Racing Club de Montevideo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.9 | 0.6 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 5.5 | 3.1 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.7 / 0.3 | 5.6 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Maldonado 2–2–2 Racing Club de Montevideo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/02/26 Uruguay Apertura | Racing Club de Montevideo | 2-4 HT 1-2 | Deportivo Maldonado |
| 12/11/24 Uruguay Clausura | Deportivo Maldonado | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Racing Club de Montevideo |
| 13/07/24 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Deportivo Maldonado | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Racing Club de Montevideo |
| 11/05/24 Uruguay Apertura | Racing Club de Montevideo | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Deportivo Maldonado |
| 27/08/23 Uruguay Clausura | Racing Club de Montevideo | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Deportivo Maldonado |
| 22/07/23 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Racing Club de Montevideo | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Deportivo Maldonado |
Standings · Uruguay Clausura · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montevideo Wanderers | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 15 |
| 2 | Nacional De Football | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 12 |
| 4 | Torque | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
| 5 | Juventud De Las Piedras | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 8 |
| 6 | Albion FC | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| 7 | Club Atletico Progreso | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 6 |
| 8 | Danubio | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 4 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Deportivo Maldonado | Racing Club de Montevideo |
|---|---|---|
| Torque | 4-2 W | 1-1 D |
| Boston River | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Cerro | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 0 L | 1 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Deportivo Maldonado (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Deportivo Maldonado
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 18/07 | Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 9 | L |
| 11/07 | Albion FC Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 06/06 | Torque Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
2-1 | 4-2 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 31/05 | Nacional De Football Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 24/05 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 18/05 | Danubio Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 11/05 | Boston River Uruguay Apertura |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Cerro Uruguay Apertura |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 6 | W |
| 25/04 | Albion FC Uruguay Apertura |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
Racing Club de Montevideo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Boston River Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 26/07 | Cerro Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 12/07 | Penarol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 06/06 | Central Espanol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 8 | D |
| 30/05 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 1 | D |
| 23/05 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 9 | D |
| 17/05 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 09/05 | Central Espanol Uruguay Apertura |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 03/05 | Torque Uruguay Apertura |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 26/04 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Apertura |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Deportivo Maldonado vs Racing Club de Montevideo?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Maldonado win (37%). Probabilities: Deportivo Maldonado 37%, draw 30%, Racing Club de Montevideo 33%.
How many goals are expected in Deportivo Maldonado vs Racing Club de Montevideo?
The model expects 2.45 goals (Deportivo Maldonado 1.26 · Racing Club de Montevideo 1.19), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Deportivo Maldonado vs Racing Club de Montevideo?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.