Football · Uruguay Clausura · 09/08, 23:30
Prediction: Nacional De Football vs Boston River
Team pages: Nacional De Football · Boston River
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.82Total
Nacional De Football1.9
Boston River0.92
1X2
Nacional De Football
Draw
Boston River
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Nacional De Football
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Boston River
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Nacional De Football
5–1–0
Boston River
(6 last)
- Boston River1-2Nacional De Football
- Nacional De Football0-0Boston River
- Nacional De Football2-1Boston River
- Boston River2-3Nacional De Football
- Nacional De Football3-1Boston River
- Nacional De Football1-0Boston River
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nacional De Football 1524 · Boston River 1448
| Nacional De Football | Draw | Boston River | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 24% | 17% |
| Market | 59% | 25% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nacional De Football (rating 1524 vs 1448).
- H2H favours Nacional De Football: 5-1-0.
- High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Nacional De Football | Boston River | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.1 | 0.9 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 6.8 | 2 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.3 / 0.8 | 5.1 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nacional De Football 5–1–0 Boston River
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/02/26 Uruguay Apertura | Boston River | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Nacional De Football |
| 23/08/25 Uruguay Clausura | Nacional De Football | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Boston River |
| 08/06/25 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Nacional De Football | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Boston River |
| 22/02/25 Uruguay Apertura | Boston River | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Nacional De Football |
| 01/12/24 Uruguay Clausura | Nacional De Football | 3-1 HT 0-1 | Boston River |
| 28/07/24 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Nacional De Football | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Boston River |
Standings · Uruguay Clausura · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montevideo Wanderers | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 15 |
| 2 | Nacional De Football | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 12 |
| 4 | Torque | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
| 5 | Juventud De Las Piedras | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 8 |
| 6 | Albion FC | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| 7 | Club Atletico Progreso | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 6 |
| 8 | Danubio | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 4 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nacional De Football
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-0 | 2-1 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 29/07 | CA Tigre Copa Sudamericana |
2-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 22/07 | CA Tigre Copa Sudamericana |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 18/07 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 7 | L |
| 11/07 | Danubio Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 06/06 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 31/05 | Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-3 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 27/05 | Coquimbo Unido Copa Libertadores |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 23/05 | Albion FC Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 1-0 | 13 | 12 | W |
| 21/05 | Universitario de Deportes Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | D |
Boston River
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 18/07 | Penarol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 12/07 | Central Espanol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 07/06 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 01/06 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 10 | L |
| 27/05 | Sao Paulo Copa Sudamericana |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 21/05 | O'Higgins Copa Sudamericana |
2-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Cerro Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
2-1 | 4-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 11/05 | Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Apertura |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nacional De Football vs Boston River?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Nacional De Football win (59%). Probabilities: Nacional De Football 59%, draw 25%, Boston River 17%.
How many goals are expected in Nacional De Football vs Boston River?
The model expects 2.82 goals (Nacional De Football 1.9 · Boston River 0.92), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Nacional De Football vs Boston River?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.