Football · Uruguay Clausura · 09/08, 20:00
Prediction: Defensor Sporting vs Montevideo Wanderers
Team pages: Defensor Sporting · Montevideo Wanderers
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.57Total
Defensor Sporting1.4
Montevideo Wanderers1.17
1X2
Defensor Sporting
Draw
Montevideo Wanderers
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Defensor Sporting
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Montevideo Wanderers
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Defensor Sporting
1–5–0
Montevideo Wanderers
(6 last)
- Montevideo Wanderers1-1Defensor Sporting
- Defensor Sporting2-1Montevideo Wanderers
- Montevideo Wanderers0-0Defensor Sporting
- Montevideo Wanderers0-0Defensor Sporting
- Montevideo Wanderers1-1Defensor Sporting
- Defensor Sporting1-1Montevideo Wanderers
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Defensor Sporting 1468 · Montevideo Wanderers 1540
| Defensor Sporting | Draw | Montevideo Wanderers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 29% | 30% |
| Market | 41% | 30% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Montevideo Wanderers (rating 1468 vs 1540).
- Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Defensor Sporting | Montevideo Wanderers | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.4 | 1.5 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.8 | 0.7 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/60/40% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 4.4 | 1.3 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.4 | 4.1 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Defensor Sporting 1–5–0 Montevideo Wanderers
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/26 Uruguay Apertura | Montevideo Wanderers | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Defensor Sporting |
| 07/10/25 Uruguay Clausura | Defensor Sporting | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Montevideo Wanderers |
| 18/06/25 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Montevideo Wanderers | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Defensor Sporting |
| 07/04/25 Uruguay Apertura | Montevideo Wanderers | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Defensor Sporting |
| 04/11/24 Uruguay Clausura | Montevideo Wanderers | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Defensor Sporting |
| 07/07/24 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Defensor Sporting | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Montevideo Wanderers |
Standings · Uruguay Clausura · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montevideo Wanderers | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 15 |
| 2 | Nacional De Football | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 12 |
| 4 | Torque | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
| 5 | Juventud De Las Piedras | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 8 |
| 6 | Albion FC | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| 7 | Club Atletico Progreso | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 6 |
| 8 | Danubio | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 4 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Defensor Sporting | Montevideo Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool Montevideo | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Penarol | 0-2 L | 1-5 L |
| Juventud De Las Piedras | 1-2 L | 5-2 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 0 D 3 L | 2 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Montevideo Wanderers (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Defensor Sporting
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Cerro Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 25/07 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 14/07 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 04/07 | Cruzeiro America Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 07/06 | Boston River Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 30/05 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 24/05 | Penarol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 17/05 | Central Espanol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 10/05 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Apertura |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 10 | L |
| 05/05 | Penarol Uruguay Apertura |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 9 | D |
Montevideo Wanderers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08 | Penarol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-4 | 1-5 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 01/08 | Torque Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 18/07 | Nacional De Football Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 11/07 | Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 06/06 | Danubio Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 31/05 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-1 | 5-2 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 24/05 | Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 17/05 | Albion FC Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 09/05 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Apertura |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Apertura |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Defensor Sporting vs Montevideo Wanderers?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Defensor Sporting win (41%). Probabilities: Defensor Sporting 41%, draw 29%, Montevideo Wanderers 30%.
How many goals are expected in Defensor Sporting vs Montevideo Wanderers?
The model expects 2.57 goals (Defensor Sporting 1.4 · Montevideo Wanderers 1.17), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Defensor Sporting vs Montevideo Wanderers?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.