Football · Uruguay Clausura · 08/08, 16:00
Prediction: Central Espanol vs Club Atletico Progreso
Team pages: Central Espanol · Club Atletico Progreso
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.43Total
Central Espanol1.28
Club Atletico Progreso1.15
1X2
Central Espanol
Draw
Club Atletico Progreso
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Central Espanol
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Club Atletico Progreso
2-0-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Central Espanol
2–2–2
Club Atletico Progreso
(6 last)
- Club Atletico Progreso0-3Central Espanol
- Central Espanol1-1Club Atletico Progreso
- Club Atletico Progreso1-1Central Espanol
- Club Atletico Progreso2-0Central Espanol
- Central Espanol1-0Club Atletico Progreso
- Club Atletico Progreso2-0Central Espanol
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Central Espanol 1518 · Club Atletico Progreso 1428
| Central Espanol | Draw | Club Atletico Progreso | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 30% | 32% |
| Market | 39% | 28% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Central Espanol (rating 1518 vs 1428).
- Cards-heavy: 12.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Central Espanol | Club Atletico Progreso | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 0.7 | 0.7 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.5 | 0.3 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.1 | 1.6 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.6 / 0.9 | 6.5 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Central Espanol 2–2–2 Club Atletico Progreso
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/26 Uruguay Apertura | Club Atletico Progreso | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Central Espanol |
| 25/09/22 Uruguay Segunda | Central Espanol | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Club Atletico Progreso |
| 25/06/22 Uruguay Segunda | Club Atletico Progreso | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Central Espanol |
| 09/12/17 Uruguay Segunda | Club Atletico Progreso | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Central Espanol |
| 06/12/17 Uruguay Segunda | Central Espanol | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Club Atletico Progreso |
| 22/11/17 Uruguay Segunda | Club Atletico Progreso | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Central Espanol |
Standings · Uruguay Clausura · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montevideo Wanderers | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 15 |
| 2 | Nacional De Football | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 12 |
| 4 | Torque | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
| 5 | Juventud De Las Piedras | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 8 |
| 6 | Albion FC | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| 7 | Club Atletico Progreso | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 6 |
| 8 | Danubio | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 4 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Central Espanol | Club Atletico Progreso |
|---|---|---|
| Cerro Largo | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Defensor Sporting | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 0 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Central Espanol (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Central Espanol
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 11 | D |
| 25/07 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 12/07 | Boston River Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 06/06 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 8 | D |
| 02/06 | Penarol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 24/05 | Cerro Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 09/05 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Apertura |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 03/05 | Boston River Uruguay Apertura |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 26/04 | Cerro Uruguay Apertura |
2-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 9 | W |
Club Atletico Progreso
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Nacional De Football Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 18/07 | Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 11/07 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 07/06 | Albion FC Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 30/05 | Danubio Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | Torque Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 10 | L |
| 16/05 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 10/05 | Torque Uruguay Apertura |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 03/05 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Apertura |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 28/04 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Apertura |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 11 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Central Espanol vs Club Atletico Progreso?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Central Espanol win (39%). Probabilities: Central Espanol 39%, draw 29%, Club Atletico Progreso 32%.
How many goals are expected in Central Espanol vs Club Atletico Progreso?
The model expects 2.43 goals (Central Espanol 1.28 · Club Atletico Progreso 1.15), with a 55% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Central Espanol vs Club Atletico Progreso?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.