Football · Uruguay Segunda · 08/08, 21:00

Prediction: Colon FC vs Cerrito

Team pages: Colon FC · Cerrito

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.25Total

Colon FC1.14

Cerrito1.11

1X2

35% 31% 34%

Colon FC Draw Cerrito

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Colon FC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLWDWDWWLL

Cerrito 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLLWDWDD

Head-to-head

Colon FC 3–1–1 Cerrito (5 last)

Colon FC1-0Cerrito
Cerrito1-2Colon FC
Cerrito0-2Colon FC
Colon FC0-2Cerrito
Cerrito1-1Colon FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Colon FC 1503 · Cerrito 1522

	Colon FC	Draw	Cerrito
Our model	35%	31%	33%
Market	36%	31%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.25 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Colon FC: 3-1-1.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 12.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Colon FC	Cerrito
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.5	1.2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.3	3.2 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.6	6.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.50

X2.90

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 13:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Pinn 2.54
X	3.00 → 2.90▼	Pinn 3.18 ★
2	2.55 → 2.63▲	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 12.6% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
05:22 +4’	2.50	3.00	2.55
11:28 +7’	2.10▼	3.10▲	3.10▲
08:16 +2’	2.20▲	3.00▼	2.90▼
13:21 +4’	2.50▲	2.90▼	2.63▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:29 +1’	2.14	3.00	3.21
10:31 +1’	2.17▲	3.06▲	3.28▲
20:24 +1’	2.12▼	3.07▲	3.41▲
22:29 +1’	2.12	3.06▼	3.40▼
04:21 +1’	2.27▲	3.15▲	3.00▼
08:18	2.48▲	3.15	2.69▼
06:27	2.56▲	3.19▲	2.58▼
13:24 +1’	2.54▼	3.18▼	2.61▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Colon FC 3–1–1 Cerrito

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/10/25 Uruguay Segunda	Colon FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Cerrito
02/08/25 Uruguay Segunda	Cerrito	1-2 HT 0-2	Colon FC
26/09/24 Uruguay Segunda	Cerrito	0-2 HT 0-1	Colon FC
09/06/24 Uruguay Segunda	Colon FC	0-2 HT 0-0	Cerrito
21/04/24 Uruguay Segunda	Cerrito	1-1 HT 1-0	Colon FC

Standings · Uruguay Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Oriental	6	4	1	1	8	5	13
2	Plaza Colonia	6	3	3	0	9	2	12
3	Colon FC	6	2	3	1	8	5	9
4	Rentistas	6	2	3	1	6	5	9
5	Miramar Misiones	6	1	2	3	3	7	5
6	Paysandu FC	6	1	1	4	4	7	4
7	CA River Plate	6	1	1	4	6	13	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Colon FC	Cerrito
CA Atenas	1-4 L	2-1 W
Paysandu FC	2-3 L	1-0 W
Huracan DPA	2-0 W	2-0 W
CA River Plate	2-1 W	4-6 L
Atletico Fenix Montevideo	1-1 D	1-1 D
Rentistas	2-0 W	0-0 D
Miramar Misiones	1-3 L	1-0 W
Tacuarembo	0-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	4 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Cerrito (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Colon FC

LLWDWDWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/08	CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda	1-2	1-4	6	5	L
25/07	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	1-1	2-3	7	3	L
11/07	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	2-0	2-0	3	7	W
06/07	Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	6	7	W
28/06	Club Oriental Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-1	7	4	D
20/06	CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda	1-1	2-1	6	3	W
13/06	Atletico Fenix Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
07/06	Rentistas Uruguay Segunda	1-0	2-0	5	10	W
31/05	Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda	0-2	1-3	5	8	L
24/05	Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda	0-2	0-2	5	6	L

Cerrito

WWWLLWDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Atletico Fenix Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-1	4	7	D
18/07	Rentistas Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	6	8	D
12/07	Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
05/07	Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
28/06	Plaza Colonia Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	8	6	W
21/06	La Luz Uruguay Segunda	0-1	0-2	8	11	L
14/06	CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda	3-5	4-6	7	8	L
07/06	CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda	1-0	2-1	6	6	W
30/05	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
24/05	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	2-0	2-0	2	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Colon FC vs Cerrito?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Colon FC win (35%). Probabilities: Colon FC 35%, draw 31%, Cerrito 34%.

How many goals are expected in Colon FC vs Cerrito?

The model expects 2.25 goals (Colon FC 1.14 · Cerrito 1.11), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Colon FC vs Cerrito?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.