Football · Uruguay Segunda · 16/08, 20:00

Prediction: Atletico Fenix Montevideo vs Plaza Colonia

Team pages: Atletico Fenix Montevideo · Plaza Colonia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.1Total

Atletico Fenix Montevideo1.02

Plaza Colonia1.09

1X2

33% 31% 36%

Atletico Fenix Montevideo Draw Plaza Colonia

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Fenix Montevideo 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DWDDLWLWDD

Plaza Colonia 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDWLLWLWWD

Head-to-head

Atletico Fenix Montevideo 1–2–3 Plaza Colonia (6 last)

Plaza Colonia0-1Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Atletico Fenix Montevideo1-4Plaza Colonia
Plaza Colonia1-1Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Plaza Colonia3-1Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Atletico Fenix Montevideo0-1Plaza Colonia
Plaza Colonia1-1Atletico Fenix Montevideo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Fenix Montevideo 1521 · Plaza Colonia 1501

	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	Draw	Plaza Colonia
Our model	32%	33%	35%
Market	33%	30%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.1 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Plaza Colonia: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	Plaza Colonia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1	1.2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	10/80/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.6	2.8 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.6	6 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.00

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 21.85

Under 21.95

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
X	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.04
2	2.45 → 2.45	Pinn 3.01 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:49 +14’	2.70	3.00	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:39	2.28	3.04	3.08
12:10	2.32▲	3.04	3.01▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Fenix Montevideo 1–2–3 Plaza Colonia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Uruguay Segunda	Plaza Colonia	0-1 HT 0-0	Atletico Fenix Montevideo
13/10/23 Uruguay Clausura	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	1-4 HT 0-3	Plaza Colonia
24/06/23 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	Plaza Colonia	1-1 HT 0-0	Atletico Fenix Montevideo
06/03/23 Uruguay Apertura	Plaza Colonia	3-1 HT 1-0	Atletico Fenix Montevideo
05/09/22 Uruguay Clausura	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	0-1 HT 0-0	Plaza Colonia
25/02/22 Uruguay Apertura	Plaza Colonia	1-1 HT 1-1	Atletico Fenix Montevideo

Standings · Uruguay Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Oriental	6	4	1	1	8	5	13
2	Plaza Colonia	6	3	3	0	9	2	12
3	Colon FC	6	2	3	1	8	5	9
4	Rentistas	6	2	3	1	6	5	9
5	Miramar Misiones	6	1	2	3	3	7	5
6	Paysandu FC	6	1	1	4	4	7	4
7	CA River Plate	6	1	1	4	6	13	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	Plaza Colonia
La Luz	0-0 D	1-0 W
Cerrito	1-1 D	0-1 L
CA Atenas	1-0 W	1-2 L
Paysandu FC	0-1 L	2-1 W
Huracan DPA	2-0 W	0-0 D
Uruguay Montevideo	2-3 L	0-2 L
CA River Plate	3-1 W	2-3 L
Rentistas	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Fenix Montevideo (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Fenix Montevideo

DWDDLWLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	La Luz Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
02/08	Cerrito Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-1	5	7	D
26/07	CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
14/07	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-1	6	8	L
05/07	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	1-0	2-0	3	1	W
27/06	Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	2-1	2-3	9	11	L
20/06	Club Oriental Uruguay Segunda	0-1	2-2	8	3	D
13/06	Colon FC Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-1	6	5	D
06/06	CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda	1-1	3-1	3	8	W
31/05	Rentistas Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-1	5	4	D

Plaza Colonia

LDWLLWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/08	Rentistas Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
02/08	Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda	0-0	3-0	7	9	W
25/07	Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
11/07	CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda	1-2	2-3	4	5	L
04/07	La Luz Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	2	10	W
28/06	Cerrito Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-1	8	6	L
21/06	CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda	1-1	1-2	7	6	L
14/06	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	1-1	2-1	4	9	W
06/06	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	9	7	D
30/05	Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-2	7	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Fenix Montevideo vs Plaza Colonia?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Plaza Colonia win (36%). Probabilities: Atletico Fenix Montevideo 33%, draw 31%, Plaza Colonia 36%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Fenix Montevideo vs Plaza Colonia?

The model expects 2.1 goals (Atletico Fenix Montevideo 1.02 · Plaza Colonia 1.09), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Fenix Montevideo vs Plaza Colonia?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.