Football · Uruguay Segunda · 16/08, 17:00

Prediction: Rentistas vs Tacuarembo

Team pages: Rentistas · Tacuarembo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.26Total

Rentistas1.44

Tacuarembo0.82

1X2

51% 29% 20%

Rentistas Draw Tacuarembo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Rentistas 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLLWWLWDWD

Tacuarembo 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWLDLLWD

Head-to-head

Rentistas 2–3–1 Tacuarembo (6 last)

Tacuarembo1-1Rentistas
Rentistas3-1Tacuarembo
Tacuarembo2-1Rentistas
Rentistas2-0Tacuarembo
Tacuarembo1-1Rentistas
Tacuarembo1-1Rentistas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Rentistas 1530 · Tacuarembo 1461

	Rentistas	Draw	Tacuarembo
Our model	51%	29%	20%
Market	51%	28%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.26 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rentistas (rating 1530 vs 1461).
H2H favours Rentistas: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 12.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Rentistas	Tacuarembo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.3	0.5 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	33/33/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.5	2.1 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.8 / 0.7	6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.20

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 21.88

Under 21.93

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Pinn 1.88 ★
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:53 +3’	1.75	3.20	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:36	1.88	3.19	4.06

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Rentistas 2–3–1 Tacuarembo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Uruguay Segunda	Tacuarembo	1-1	Rentistas
07/09/25 Uruguay Segunda	Rentistas	3-1 HT 0-0	Tacuarembo
15/06/25 Uruguay Segunda	Tacuarembo	2-1	Rentistas
22/09/24 Uruguay Segunda	Rentistas	2-0 HT 0-0	Tacuarembo
05/06/24 Uruguay Segunda	Tacuarembo	1-1 HT 0-1	Rentistas
22/10/23 Uruguay Segunda	Tacuarembo	1-1	Rentistas

Standings · Uruguay Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Oriental	6	4	1	1	8	5	13
2	Plaza Colonia	6	3	3	0	9	2	12
3	Colon FC	6	2	3	1	8	5	9
4	Rentistas	6	2	3	1	6	5	9
5	Miramar Misiones	6	1	2	3	3	7	5
6	Paysandu FC	6	1	1	4	4	7	4
7	CA River Plate	6	1	1	4	6	13	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Rentistas	Tacuarembo
Plaza Colonia	1-1 D	0-2 L
La Luz	5-2 W	0-2 L
Cerrito	0-0 D	0-0 D
CA Atenas	3-1 W	0-2 L
Paysandu FC	1-2 L	1-0 W
Huracan DPA	2-1 W	1-2 L
Uruguay Montevideo	1-0 W	1-0 W
Club Oriental	0-3 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Rentistas (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Rentistas

DLLWWLWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/08	Plaza Colonia Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
01/08	La Luz Uruguay Segunda	2-1	5-2	1	12	W
18/07	Cerrito Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	4	8	D
12/07	CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda	2-1	3-1	4	11	W
04/07	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	1-1	1-2	10	5	L
27/06	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	1-0	2-1	4	6	W
21/06	Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	6	10	W
14/06	Club Oriental Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-3	3	4	L
07/06	Colon FC Uruguay Segunda	0-1	0-2	11	10	L
31/05	Atletico Fenix Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-1	6	4	D

Tacuarembo

LWLWLDLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-1	4	7	D
02/08	CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda	–	1-0	–	–	W
25/07	Plaza Colonia Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-2	8	5	L
13/07	La Luz Uruguay Segunda	0-2	0-2	2	6	L
05/07	Cerrito Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
27/06	CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda	0-2	0-2	3	6	L
20/06	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-0	4	14	W
13/06	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-2	3	6	L
07/06	Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
01/06	Club Oriental Uruguay Segunda	0-1	0-2	5	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rentistas vs Tacuarembo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Rentistas win (51%). Probabilities: Rentistas 51%, draw 29%, Tacuarembo 20%.

How many goals are expected in Rentistas vs Tacuarembo?

The model expects 2.26 goals (Rentistas 1.44 · Tacuarembo 0.82), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Rentistas vs Tacuarembo?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.