Football · Uruguay Segunda · 15/08, 18:00

Prediction: Uruguay Montevideo vs CA Atenas

Team pages: Uruguay Montevideo · CA Atenas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.33Total

Uruguay Montevideo1.09

CA Atenas1.24

1X2

32% 30% 39%

Uruguay Montevideo Draw CA Atenas

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Uruguay Montevideo 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLLLWLDDWW

CA Atenas 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWWDLLWW

Head-to-head

Uruguay Montevideo 1–1–4 CA Atenas (6 last)

CA Atenas2-1Uruguay Montevideo
CA Atenas0-1Uruguay Montevideo
Uruguay Montevideo1-2CA Atenas
CA Atenas1-0Uruguay Montevideo
CA Atenas1-0Uruguay Montevideo
CA Atenas1-1Uruguay Montevideo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Uruguay Montevideo 1498 · CA Atenas 1549

	Uruguay Montevideo	Draw	CA Atenas
Our model	31%	31%	38%
Market	32%	29%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.33 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CA Atenas (rating 1498 vs 1549).
H2H favours CA Atenas: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Uruguay Montevideo	CA Atenas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.1	1.8 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5	0.7 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.5	5.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.10

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 21.82

Under 21.98

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:31 +4’	2.80	3.10	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Uruguay Montevideo 1–1–4 CA Atenas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Uruguay Segunda	CA Atenas	2-1 HT 0-1	Uruguay Montevideo
01/04/26 Uruguay Segunda	CA Atenas	0-1 HT 0-1	Uruguay Montevideo
16/08/25 Uruguay Segunda	Uruguay Montevideo	1-2 HT 0-1	CA Atenas
25/05/25 Uruguay Segunda	CA Atenas	1-0 HT 1-0	Uruguay Montevideo
10/03/25 Uruguay Segunda	CA Atenas	1-0 HT 0-0	Uruguay Montevideo
12/10/24 Uruguay Segunda	CA Atenas	1-1 HT 1-0	Uruguay Montevideo

Standings · Uruguay Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	6	3	2	1	13	7	11
2	Huracan DPA	6	2	4	0	9	6	10
3	Uruguay Montevideo	6	2	3	1	7	5	9
4	Cerrito	6	2	3	1	8	8	9
5	La Luz	6	1	4	1	5	6	7
6	CA Atenas	6	1	1	4	5	11	4
7	Tacuarembo	6	0	3	3	5	9	3

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Uruguay Montevideo	CA Atenas
CA River Plate	1-1 D	2-0 W
Club Oriental	1-1 D	1-0 W
Colon FC	0-1 L	4-1 W
Atletico Fenix Montevideo	3-2 W	0-1 L
Rentistas	0-1 L	1-3 L
Miramar Misiones	1-3 L	1-1 D
Tacuarembo	0-1 L	2-0 W
Plaza Colonia	2-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	5 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: CA Atenas (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Uruguay Montevideo

WLLLWLDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
01/08	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	2-1	3-1	2	4	W
18/07	CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-1	7	6	D
12/07	Club Oriental Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
06/07	Colon FC Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
27/06	Atletico Fenix Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	1-2	3-2	10	11	W
21/06	Rentistas Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-1	4	10	L
13/06	Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda	0-2	1-3	7	8	L
07/06	Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
30/05	Plaza Colonia Uruguay Segunda	0-0	2-0	6	5	W

CA Atenas

WLWWWDLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Club Oriental Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
03/08	Colon FC Uruguay Segunda	2-1	4-1	1	5	W
26/07	Atletico Fenix Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
12/07	Rentistas Uruguay Segunda	1-2	1-3	6	11	L
06/07	Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
27/06	Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda	2-0	2-0	3	6	W
21/06	Plaza Colonia Uruguay Segunda	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
14/06	La Luz Uruguay Segunda	2-0	4-0	0	2	W
07/06	Cerrito Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-2	2	6	L
31/05	CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda	1-0	2-0	2	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Uruguay Montevideo vs CA Atenas?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CA Atenas win (39%). Probabilities: Uruguay Montevideo 32%, draw 30%, CA Atenas 39%.

How many goals are expected in Uruguay Montevideo vs CA Atenas?

The model expects 2.33 goals (Uruguay Montevideo 1.09 · CA Atenas 1.24), with a 54% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Uruguay Montevideo vs CA Atenas?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.