Football · Peru Liga 2 · 24/08, 22:00

Prediction: Alianza Universidad vs Bentin Tacna Heroica

Team pages: Alianza Universidad · Bentin Tacna Heroica

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.5Total

Alianza Universidad1.38

Bentin Tacna Heroica1.11

1X2

42% 29% 29%

Alianza Universidad Draw Bentin Tacna Heroica

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Alianza Universidad 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DLDWWLWLDD

Bentin Tacna Heroica 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DLDLWWWWDW

Head-to-head

Alianza Universidad 0–1–0 Bentin Tacna Heroica (1 last)

Bentin Tacna Heroica0-0Alianza Universidad

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alianza Universidad 1498 · Bentin Tacna Heroica 1544

	Alianza Universidad	Draw	Bentin Tacna Heroica
Our model	42%	29%	29%
Market	42%	29%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bentin Tacna Heroica (rating 1498 vs 1544).
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alianza Universidad	Bentin Tacna Heroica
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.2	1.5 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.3	3.1 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	4.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.10

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
20:55 +6’	2.15	3.10	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza Universidad 0–1–0 Bentin Tacna Heroica

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Peru Liga 2	Bentin Tacna Heroica	0-0 HT 0-0	Alianza Universidad

Standings · Peru Liga 2 · Liga 2 2026, Group B

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bentin Tacna Heroica	13	7	4	2	18	10	25
2	Comerciantes FC	14	5	8	1	19	13	23
3	Ayacucho FC	14	5	4	5	18	14	19
4	Sport Huancayo II	13	5	4	4	12	11	19
5	Union Minas	13	4	6	3	20	10	18
6	Santos FC	13	5	3	5	14	16	18
7	Alianza Universidad	12	4	4	4	16	14	16
8	CD Estudiantil CNI	13	3	4	6	20	16	13
9	Deportivo Binacional	13	1	3	9	9	42	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alianza Universidad	Bentin Tacna Heroica
Santos FC	3-3 D	1-2 L
Sport Huancayo II	1-1 D	1-0 W
Comerciantes FC	0-1 L	2-2 D
Ayacucho FC	3-2 W	2-0 W
Deportivo Binacional	1-2 L	3-0 W
Union Minas	1-0 W	2-1 W
CD Estudiantil CNI	2-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	5 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Bentin Tacna Heroica (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alianza Universidad

DLDWWLWLDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/08	Santos FC Peru Liga 2	1-1	3-3	2	5	D
31/07	Sport Huancayo II Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-1	3	6	D
24/07	Comerciantes FC Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
18/07	Ayacucho FC Peru Liga 2	2-1	3-2	6	1	W
31/05	Deportivo Binacional Peru Liga 2	0-1	1-2	12	3	L
23/05	Union Minas Peru Liga 2	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
16/05	CD Estudiantil CNI Peru Liga 2	2-0	2-0	4	4	W
09/05	Bentin Tacna Heroica Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	1	7	D
04/05	Santos FC Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-2	4	9	L
19/04	Sport Huancayo II Peru Liga 2	1-1	1-1	4	4	D

Bentin Tacna Heroica

DLDLWWWWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Sport Huancayo II Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
09/08	Comerciantes FC Peru Liga 2	2-2	2-2	0	2	D
02/08	Ayacucho FC Peru Liga 2	1-0	2-0	8	9	W
26/07	Deportivo Binacional Peru Liga 2	1-0	3-0	5	1	W
19/07	Union Minas Peru Liga 2	1-1	2-1	7	9	W
30/05	CD Estudiantil CNI Peru Liga 2	1-1	3-1	4	4	W
16/05	Santos FC Peru Liga 2	0-1	1-2	5	6	L
09/05	Alianza Universidad Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
01/05	Sport Huancayo II Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-2	9	3	L
26/04	Comerciantes FC Peru Liga 2	1-0	1-1	5	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alianza Universidad vs Bentin Tacna Heroica?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alianza Universidad win (42%). Probabilities: Alianza Universidad 42%, draw 29%, Bentin Tacna Heroica 29%.

How many goals are expected in Alianza Universidad vs Bentin Tacna Heroica?

The model expects 2.5 goals (Alianza Universidad 1.38 · Bentin Tacna Heroica 1.11), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Alianza Universidad vs Bentin Tacna Heroica?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.