Football · Peru Liga 2 · 30/08, 20:00

Prediction: Deportivo Llacuabamba vs Union Comercio

Team pages: Deportivo Llacuabamba · Union Comercio

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.76Total

Deportivo Llacuabamba0.92

Union Comercio0.83

1X2

36% 32% 32%

Deportivo Llacuabamba Draw Union Comercio

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 54% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

0-0 19%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Llacuabamba 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWWDWLLWDL

Union Comercio 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WLDDWWDWWD

Head-to-head

Deportivo Llacuabamba 0–1–4 Union Comercio (5 last)

Union Comercio0-0Deportivo Llacuabamba
Deportivo Llacuabamba0-3Union Comercio
Union Comercio2-0Deportivo Llacuabamba
Deportivo Llacuabamba0-2Union Comercio
Union Comercio3-1Deportivo Llacuabamba

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Llacuabamba 1518 · Union Comercio 1535

	Deportivo Llacuabamba	Draw	Union Comercio
Our model	34%	36%	30%
Market	38%	29%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 1.76 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Union Comercio: 4-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Llacuabamba	Union Comercio
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.6	1 / 0.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.2	0.4 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3	3.2 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.9 / 0.4	5.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.10

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.75

2 (0)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 1.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
17:15 +3’	2.35	3.10	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Llacuabamba 0–1–4 Union Comercio

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Peru Liga 2	Union Comercio	0-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Llacuabamba
31/07/22 Peru Liga 2	Deportivo Llacuabamba	0-3	Union Comercio
01/05/22 Peru Liga 2	Union Comercio	2-0	Deportivo Llacuabamba
22/09/21 Peru Liga 2	Deportivo Llacuabamba	0-2 HT 0-2	Union Comercio
21/07/21 Peru Liga 2	Union Comercio	3-1 HT 3-0	Deportivo Llacuabamba

Standings · Peru Liga 2 · Liga 2 2026, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Comercio	13	8	4	1	17	3	28
2	Deportivo Llacuabamba	13	8	2	3	20	6	26
3	Pirata FC	14	7	3	4	23	16	24
4	Carlos Manucci	14	7	3	4	16	10	24
5	CD Universidad San Martin	13	6	2	5	22	14	20
6	Cesar Vallejo	13	5	4	4	14	10	19
7	Club Ada Jaen	13	3	6	4	12	12	15
8	Academia Deportiva Cantolao	13	2	4	7	12	23	10
9	FC San Marcos	14	0	0	14	0	42	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Llacuabamba	Union Comercio
Cesar Vallejo	0-2 L	0-0 D
Club Ada Jaen	0-0 D	1-0 W
CD Universidad San Martin	3-0 W	1-0 W
Carlos Manucci	0-1 L	0-0 D
Pirata FC	1-3 L	2-1 W
Academia Deportiva Cantolao	3-0 W	4-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Union Comercio (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo Llacuabamba

WWWDWLLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Cesar Vallejo Peru Liga 2	0-1	0-2	2	9	L
08/08	Club Ada Jaen Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
01/08	CD Universidad San Martin Peru Liga 2	1-0	3-0	10	4	W
19/07	Carlos Manucci Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-1	4	8	L
01/06	Pirata FC Peru Liga 2	0-1	1-3	2	5	L
24/05	Academia Deportiva Cantolao Peru Liga 2	3-0	3-0	4	3	W
17/05	Union Comercio Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	2	12	D
09/05	Cesar Vallejo Peru Liga 2	1-0	2-0	1	8	W
25/04	Club Ada Jaen Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-0	0	3	W
18/04	CD Universidad San Martin Peru Liga 2	1-0	1-0	2	9	W

Union Comercio

WLDDWWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Carlos Manucci Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
17/08	Pirata FC Peru Liga 2	1-0	2-1	3	6	W
07/08	Academia Deportiva Cantolao Peru Liga 2	2-0	4-0	5	2	W
25/07	Cesar Vallejo Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
31/05	Club Ada Jaen Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-0	10	1	W
23/05	CD Universidad San Martin Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-0	6	7	W
17/05	Deportivo Llacuabamba Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	14	12	D
09/05	Carlos Manucci Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
03/05	Pirata FC Peru Liga 2	0-1	1-2	6	7	L
26/04	Academia Deportiva Cantolao Peru Liga 2	1-0	1-0	2	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Llacuabamba vs Union Comercio?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Llacuabamba win (36%). Probabilities: Deportivo Llacuabamba 36%, draw 32%, Union Comercio 32%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Llacuabamba vs Union Comercio?

The model expects 1.76 goals (Deportivo Llacuabamba 0.92 · Union Comercio 0.83), with a 60% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Llacuabamba vs Union Comercio?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.