Football · Peru Liga 2 · 29/08, 22:15

Prediction: CD Estudiantil CNI vs Alianza Universidad

Team pages: CD Estudiantil CNI · Alianza Universidad

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.58Total

CD Estudiantil CNI1.14

Alianza Universidad1.44

1X2

29% 29% 42%

CD Estudiantil CNI Draw Alianza Universidad

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Estudiantil CNI 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Alianza Universidad 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDWWLWLDDW

Head-to-head

CD Estudiantil CNI 0–1 Alianza Universidad (1 last)

Alianza Universidad2-0CD Estudiantil CNI

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Estudiantil CNI 1457 · Alianza Universidad 1506

	CD Estudiantil CNI	Draw	Alianza Universidad
Our model	29%	29%	43%
Market	29%	29%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.58 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alianza Universidad (rating 1457 vs 1506).
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Estudiantil CNI	Alianza Universidad
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.3	1.3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.3	1.8 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.3	4.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.10

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:11 +1’	3.10	3.10	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Estudiantil CNI 0–0–1 Alianza Universidad

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Peru Liga 2	Alianza Universidad	2-0 HT 2-0	CD Estudiantil CNI

Standings · Peru Liga 2 · Liga 2 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bentin Tacna Heroica	14	7	4	3	18	11	25
2	Comerciantes FC	14	5	8	1	19	13	23
3	Alianza Universidad	13	6	3	4	19	13	21
4	Ayacucho FC	14	5	4	5	18	14	19
5	Union Minas	13	4	6	3	20	10	18
6	Santos FC	13	5	3	5	14	16	18
7	Sport Huancayo II	13	5	3	5	11	13	18
8	CD Estudiantil CNI	13	3	4	6	20	16	13
9	Deportivo Binacional	13	1	3	9	9	42	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Estudiantil CNI	Alianza Universidad
Sport Huancayo II	0-1 L	1-1 D
Comerciantes FC	2-2 D	0-1 L
Ayacucho FC	0-1 L	3-2 W
Deportivo Binacional	9-0 W	1-2 L
Union Minas	0-3 L	1-0 W
Bentin Tacna Heroica	1-3 L	1-0 W
Santos FC	3-0 W	3-3 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Alianza Universidad (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Estudiantil CNI

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Sport Huancayo II Peru Liga 2	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
15/08	Comerciantes FC Peru Liga 2	2-2	2-2	9	2	D
09/08	Ayacucho FC Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
02/08	Deportivo Binacional Peru Liga 2	5-0	9-0	–	–	W
24/07	Union Minas Peru Liga 2	0-1	0-3	3	8	L
30/05	Bentin Tacna Heroica Peru Liga 2	1-1	1-3	4	4	L
23/05	Santos FC Peru Liga 2	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
16/05	Alianza Universidad Peru Liga 2	0-2	0-2	2	4	L
10/05	Sport Huancayo II Peru Liga 2	2-0	2-0	6	3	W
03/05	Comerciantes FC Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-1	2	10	D

Alianza Universidad

LDWWLWLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/08	Bentin Tacna Heroica Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
17/08	Santos FC Peru Liga 2	1-1	3-3	2	5	D
31/07	Sport Huancayo II Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-1	3	6	D
24/07	Comerciantes FC Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
18/07	Ayacucho FC Peru Liga 2	2-1	3-2	6	1	W
31/05	Deportivo Binacional Peru Liga 2	0-1	1-2	12	3	L
23/05	Union Minas Peru Liga 2	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
16/05	CD Estudiantil CNI Peru Liga 2	2-0	2-0	4	4	W
09/05	Bentin Tacna Heroica Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	1	7	D
04/05	Santos FC Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-2	4	9	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Estudiantil CNI vs Alianza Universidad?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Alianza Universidad win (42%). Probabilities: CD Estudiantil CNI 29%, draw 29%, Alianza Universidad 42%.

How many goals are expected in CD Estudiantil CNI vs Alianza Universidad?

The model expects 2.58 goals (CD Estudiantil CNI 1.14 · Alianza Universidad 1.44), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Estudiantil CNI vs Alianza Universidad?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.