Football · Argentina Championship Women · 09/08, 20:00

Prediction: Union Santa Fe (W) vs River Plate (W)

Team pages: Union Santa Fe (W) · River Plate (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.84Total

Union Santa Fe (W)0.87

River Plate (W)1.97

1X2

15% 23% 62%

Union Santa Fe (W) Draw River Plate (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

0-2

Recent form · 10 last

Union Santa Fe (W) 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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River Plate (W) 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Union Santa Fe (W) 0–1 River Plate (W) (1 last)

River Plate (W)6-1Union Santa Fe (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Union Santa Fe (W) 1439 · River Plate (W) 1501

	Union Santa Fe (W)	Draw	River Plate (W)
Our model	15%	23%	62%
Market	15%	22%	62%

Estimated total (ours) 2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours River Plate (W) (rating 1439 vs 1501).
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Union Santa Fe (W)	River Plate (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.6	1.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	0.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	11/44/44%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.9 / 2.1	1.4 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	4.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

15.75

X4.00

21.42

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.77

2 (-1.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 10:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.50 → 5.75▲	Pinn 6.50 ★
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.23
2	1.45 → 1.42▼	Pinn 1.43

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.8% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
23:23 +55’	5.50	4.00	1.45
10:11 +2’	5.75▲	4.00	1.42▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:46	6.50	4.23	1.43

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Santa Fe (W) 0–0–1 River Plate (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/03/26 Argentina Championship Women	River Plate (W)	6-1 HT 2-0	Union Santa Fe (W)

Standings · Argentina Championship Women · Primera Division A, Women 2026, Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	San Luis FC (W)	2	2	0	0	6	2	6
2	Union Santa Fe (W)	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
3	Boca Juniors (W)	3	2	0	1	5	3	6
4	Lanus (W)	2	2	0	0	2	0	6
5	San Lorenzo (W)	2	1	1	0	4	3	4
6	Ferro Carril Oeste (W)	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
6	Social Atletico Television (W)	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
8	Banfield (W)	2	1	0	1	4	2	3
9	Belgrano (W)	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
10	River Plate (W)	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
11	Huracan (W)	2	1	0	1	1	2	3
12	CA Talleres de Cordoba (W)	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
13	Racing Club (W)	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
14	Gimnasia LP (W)	3	0	0	3	1	5	0
15	CA Independiente Women	2	0	0	2	0	4	0
16	Newell's Old Boys (W)	3	0	0	3	1	7	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Union Santa Fe (W)	River Plate (W)
Banfield (W)	2-1 W	4-1 W
Gimnasia LP (W)	2-0 W	2-4 L
Newell's Old Boys (W)	0-2 L	1-0 W
Racing Club (W)	1-2 L	1-3 L
San Lorenzo (W)	1-2 L	0-1 L
CA Talleres de Cordoba (W)	0-0 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Union Santa Fe (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Banfield (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-1	2-1	0	4	W
27/07	Gimnasia LP (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
22/07	Newell's Old Boys (W) Argentina Championship Women	–	0-2	–	–	L
13/07	Racing Club (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	1-2	0	5	L
08/07	San Lorenzo (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-1	1-2	1	4	L
04/07	CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
28/06	Ferro Carril Oeste (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-2	1-2	4	7	L
20/06	Boca Juniors (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-2	0-3	0	3	L
13/06	Lanus (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	0-1	6	6	L
23/05	San Luis FC (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-3	1	1	L

River Plate (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/08	CA Independiente Women Argentina Championship Women	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
28/07	Huracan (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-1	1	0	L
17/07	Belgrano (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	1-2	4	2	L
13/07	Social Atletico Television (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-0	3-0	6	1	W
08/07	Banfield (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-1	4-1	5	2	W
04/07	Gimnasia LP (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-2	2-4	6	7	L
26/06	Newell's Old Boys (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
21/06	Racing Club (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	1-3	2	4	L
14/06	San Lorenzo (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-1	7	9	L
25/05	CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-0	1-1	4	9	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Union Santa Fe (W) vs River Plate (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an River Plate (W) win (62%). Probabilities: Union Santa Fe (W) 15%, draw 23%, River Plate (W) 62%.

How many goals are expected in Union Santa Fe (W) vs River Plate (W)?

The model expects 2.84 goals (Union Santa Fe (W) 0.87 · River Plate (W) 1.97), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Union Santa Fe (W) vs River Plate (W)?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.