Football · Argentina Championship Women · 16/08, 16:00
Prediction: Belgrano (W) vs Union Santa Fe (W)
Team pages: Belgrano (W) · Union Santa Fe (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.17Total
Belgrano (W)1.49
Union Santa Fe (W)0.68
1X2
Belgrano (W)
Draw
Union Santa Fe (W)
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Belgrano (W)
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Union Santa Fe (W)
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Belgrano (W)
0–1–0
Union Santa Fe (W)
(1 last)
- Union Santa Fe (W)0-0Belgrano (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Belgrano (W) 1559 · Union Santa Fe (W) 1439
| Belgrano (W) | Draw | Union Santa Fe (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 29% | 16% |
| Market | 59% | 22% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.17 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Belgrano (W) (rating 1559 vs 1439).
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Belgrano (W) | Union Santa Fe (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 0.3 | 0.8 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.1 | 0.3 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/70/10% | 11/33/56% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 3.8 | 1.1 / 2.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.1 | 4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Belgrano (W) 0–1–0 Union Santa Fe (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 Argentina Championship Women | Union Santa Fe (W) | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Belgrano (W) |
Standings · Argentina Championship Women · Primera Division A, Women 2026, Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belgrano (W) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | Banfield (W) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | San Luis FC (W) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 4 | Boca Juniors (W) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | River Plate (W) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Lanus (W) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 7 | Union Santa Fe (W) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| 8 | Huracan (W) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| 10 | San Lorenzo (W) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 10 | Ferro Carril Oeste (W) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 10 | Racing Club (W) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 13 | Social Atletico Television (W) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 14 | Gimnasia LP (W) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| 15 | Newell's Old Boys (W) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| 16 | CA Independiente Women | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 0 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Belgrano (W) | Union Santa Fe (W) |
|---|---|---|
| River Plate (W) | 2-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Banfield (W) | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Gimnasia LP (W) | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Newell's Old Boys (W) | 1-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Racing Club (W) | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| San Lorenzo (W) | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 3 D 0 L | 2 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Belgrano (W) (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Belgrano (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08 | CA Independiente Women Argentina Championship Women |
1-0 | 6-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 02/08 | Huracan (W) Argentina Championship Women |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 26/07 | Social Atletico Television (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 17/07 | River Plate (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 13/07 | Banfield (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 08/07 | Gimnasia LP (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 04/07 | Newell's Old Boys (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 26/06 | Racing Club (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 19/06 | San Lorenzo (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 14/06 | CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | D |
Union Santa Fe (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | River Plate (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 02/08 | Banfield (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 27/07 | Gimnasia LP (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 22/07 | Newell's Old Boys (W) Argentina Championship Women |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 13/07 | Racing Club (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 08/07 | San Lorenzo (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 04/07 | CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 28/06 | Ferro Carril Oeste (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 20/06 | Boca Juniors (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-2 | 0-3 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 13/06 | Lanus (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Belgrano (W) vs Union Santa Fe (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Belgrano (W) win (57%). Probabilities: Belgrano (W) 57%, draw 25%, Union Santa Fe (W) 18%.
How many goals are expected in Belgrano (W) vs Union Santa Fe (W)?
The model expects 2.17 goals (Belgrano (W) 1.49 · Union Santa Fe (W) 0.68), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Belgrano (W) vs Union Santa Fe (W)?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.