Football · Argentina Championship Women · 16/08, 17:00
Prediction: Gimnasia LP (W) vs Boca Juniors (W)
Team pages: Gimnasia LP (W) · Boca Juniors (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.39Total
Gimnasia LP (W)0.93
Boca Juniors (W)1.46
1X2
Gimnasia LP (W)
Draw
Boca Juniors (W)
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Gimnasia LP (W)
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Boca Juniors (W)
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Gimnasia LP (W)
1–1–4
Boca Juniors (W)
(6 last)
- Boca Juniors (W)0-1Gimnasia LP (W)
- Boca Juniors (W)1-0Gimnasia LP (W)
- Boca Juniors (W)1-0Gimnasia LP (W)
- Boca Juniors (W)6-0Gimnasia LP (W)
- Gimnasia LP (W)1-1Boca Juniors (W)
- Gimnasia LP (W)1-4Boca Juniors (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gimnasia LP (W) 1495 · Boca Juniors (W) 1555
| Gimnasia LP (W) | Draw | Boca Juniors (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 23% | 29% | 48% |
| Market | 23% | 28% | 49% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.39 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Boca Juniors (W) (rating 1495 vs 1555).
- H2H favours Boca Juniors (W): 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Gimnasia LP (W) | Boca Juniors (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.4 | 1.5 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.4 | 0.8 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.2 | 2.1 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.1 | 3.3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gimnasia LP (W) 1–1–4 Boca Juniors (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 Argentina Championship Women | Boca Juniors (W) | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Gimnasia LP (W) |
| 18/11/25 Argentina Championship Women | Boca Juniors (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Gimnasia LP (W) |
| 08/05/25 Argentina Championship Women | Boca Juniors (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Gimnasia LP (W) |
| 25/11/24 Argentina Championship Women | Boca Juniors (W) | 6-0 HT 2-0 | Gimnasia LP (W) |
| 07/07/24 Argentina Championship Women | Gimnasia LP (W) | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Boca Juniors (W) |
| 12/11/23 Argentina Championship Women | Gimnasia LP (W) | 1-4 HT 1-1 | Boca Juniors (W) |
Standings · Argentina Championship Women · Primera Division A, Women 2026, Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belgrano (W) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | Banfield (W) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | San Luis FC (W) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 4 | Boca Juniors (W) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | River Plate (W) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Lanus (W) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 7 | Union Santa Fe (W) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| 8 | Huracan (W) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| 10 | San Lorenzo (W) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 10 | Ferro Carril Oeste (W) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 10 | Racing Club (W) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 13 | Social Atletico Television (W) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 14 | Gimnasia LP (W) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| 15 | Newell's Old Boys (W) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| 16 | CA Independiente Women | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Gimnasia LP (W) | Boca Juniors (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Lanus (W) | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| San Luis FC (W) | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Union Santa Fe (W) | 0-2 L | 3-0 W |
| CA Independiente Women | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Social Atletico Television (W) | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Newell's Old Boys (W) | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 3 L | 5 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Boca Juniors (W) (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gimnasia LP (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Lanus (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 02/08 | San Luis FC (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 27/07 | Union Santa Fe (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 17/07 | CA Independiente Women Argentina Championship Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 13/07 | Huracan (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 08/07 | Belgrano (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 04/07 | River Plate (W) Argentina Championship Women |
2-0 | 4-2 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 27/06 | Banfield (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 19/06 | Social Atletico Television (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 14/06 | Newell's Old Boys (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
Boca Juniors (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Newell's Old Boys (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 03/08 | Racing Club (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 27/07 | San Lorenzo (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 22/07 | CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 13/07 | Ferro Carril Oeste (W) Argentina Championship Women |
2-2 | 3-3 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 08/07 | Social Atletico Television (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 05/07 | Lanus (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 28/06 | San Luis FC (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 20/06 | Union Santa Fe (W) Argentina Championship Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 15/06 | CA Independiente Women Argentina Championship Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gimnasia LP (W) vs Boca Juniors (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Boca Juniors (W) win (48%). Probabilities: Gimnasia LP (W) 23%, draw 28%, Boca Juniors (W) 48%.
How many goals are expected in Gimnasia LP (W) vs Boca Juniors (W)?
The model expects 2.39 goals (Gimnasia LP (W) 0.93 · Boca Juniors (W) 1.46), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Gimnasia LP (W) vs Boca Juniors (W)?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.